COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Lean Hogs
By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. […]
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.
The only market with a gain for the softs markets was Lean Hogs with an increase of 1,326 contracts on the week.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-63,677 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-45,769 contracts), Soybeans (-40,501 contracts), Sugar (-16,123 contracts) and Wheat (-11,776 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,767 contracts), Cotton (-6,280 contracts), Coffee (-4,593 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,044 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,425 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Cotton leads Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders
The major Soft Commodities were led in price performance this week by Cotton, which rose by 1.27% and was the only market with a higher return over the past five days.
On the downside, Corn fell by -1.62% followed by Soybean Meal which was lower by -1.74% and Wheat which dipped by -1.75%. Next up, Coffee fell by more than -2% with a -2.44% decrease, Live Cattle dipped by -3.12% and Soybeans were lower by -3.28%. Soybean Oil declined by -5.32% followed by Sugar which was lower by -5.78%.
Cocoa was down over the past five days by -6.14% and rounding out the decliners was Lean Hogs, which saw a large drop by -9.09%.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Sugar & Soybeans
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Sugar (91 percent) and Soybeans (75 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (72 percent), Soybean Meal (71 percent) and Soybean Oil (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Lean Hogs (1 percent), Live Cattle (8 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cocoa (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (49.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.8 percent)
Sugar (91.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (94.4 percent)
Coffee (8.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.7 percent)
Soybeans (75.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (55.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (71.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (85.8 percent)
Live Cattle (8.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (72.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.4 percent)
Cocoa (14.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (15.9 percent)
Wheat (38.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (47.2 percent)
Cocoa & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (6 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (3 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Corn (-49 percent) has the highest downside trend score currently with Wheat (-39 percent), Soybeans (-25 percent) and Soybean Meal (-24 percent) following next.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-49.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-42.2 percent)
Sugar (4.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (2.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.5 percent)
Soybeans (-24.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-25.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (2.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (6.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-6.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.1 percent)
Cotton (-13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.5 percent)
Cocoa (5.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (-38.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-36.4 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 137,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -63,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,272 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.2 | 43.2 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.0 | 50.4 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | 137,595 | -137,516 | -79 |
| – Gross Longs: | 425,035 | 829,107 | 169,027 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 287,440 | 966,623 | 169,106 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.9 | 44.7 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -49.2 | 44.4 | 49.3 |
SUGAR Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 185,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position reduction of -16,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,596 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 41.7 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.7 | 61.0 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | 185,473 | -229,348 | 43,875 |
| – Gross Longs: | 372,182 | 497,133 | 94,272 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 186,709 | 726,481 | 50,397 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 91.0 | 10.5 | 81.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.4 | -2.2 | -10.3 |
COFFEE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -4,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,549 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.6 | 43.2 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.5 | 51.5 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 11,956 | -13,915 | 1,959 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,491 | 72,087 | 8,494 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,535 | 86,002 | 6,535 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.2 | 89.1 | 49.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.4 | -3.4 | 15.0 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -40,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,119 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.9 | 47.3 | 4.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.9 | 62.3 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | 163,618 | -143,478 | -20,140 |
| – Gross Longs: | 239,253 | 454,093 | 43,773 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,635 | 597,571 | 63,913 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 75.4 | 24.5 | 50.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.6 | 24.5 | 12.5 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 52,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,305 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.3 | 45.9 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.6 | 55.7 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 52,538 | -58,545 | 6,007 |
| – Gross Longs: | 116,484 | 276,592 | 33,166 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,946 | 335,137 | 27,159 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.8 | 48.2 | 48.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.3 | 24.8 | -31.7 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -45,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,805 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.0 | 37.2 | 8.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.0 | 63.5 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | 133,036 | -151,853 | 18,817 |
| – Gross Longs: | 173,282 | 214,677 | 49,299 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,246 | 366,530 | 30,482 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.0 | 30.0 | 47.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.3 | 25.9 | -27.6 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,885 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 40.7 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.8 | 49.0 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | 30,841 | -23,839 | -7,002 |
| – Gross Longs: | 84,902 | 116,928 | 23,225 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 54,061 | 140,767 | 30,227 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.0 | 92.7 | 73.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.5 | -0.8 | -6.8 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position uptick of 1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,361 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.2 | 39.2 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.2 | 14.4 | 6.4 |
| – Net Position: | -81,035 | 80,474 | 561 |
| – Gross Longs: | 88,402 | 127,036 | 21,423 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 169,437 | 46,562 | 20,862 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.7 | 99.6 | 78.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.9 | 7.7 | -5.8 |
COTTON Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 76,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,478 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.4 | 44.4 | 3.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.8 | 64.3 | 3.0 |
| – Net Position: | 76,198 | -77,366 | 1,168 |
| – Gross Longs: | 118,004 | 172,252 | 12,829 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 41,806 | 249,618 | 11,661 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.2 | 30.7 | 23.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.7 | 16.9 | -48.3 |
COCOA Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,842 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.6 | 54.1 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.7 | 49.6 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | -9,267 | 8,124 | 1,143 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,772 | 97,275 | 11,026 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 39,039 | 89,151 | 9,883 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.5 | 84.2 | 38.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.8 | -5.0 | -6.0 |
WHEAT Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -62,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,762 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.7 | 40.0 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.4 | 27.9 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -62,538 | 64,325 | -1,787 |
| – Gross Longs: | 121,355 | 213,710 | 34,234 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 183,893 | 149,385 | 36,021 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.9 | 64.6 | 42.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -38.6 | 45.0 | -35.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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