COT Energy Charts: WTI Crude Oil leads Weekly Speculator Bets
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude Oil
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude with a rise by 5,946 contracts on the week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Heating Oil (-4,207 contracts), Natural Gas (-3,699 contracts), Gasoline (-3,314 contracts), Brent Oil (-2,978 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-146 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Natural gas leads Energy Price Performances
In the major Energy markets this week, Natural Gas was the performance leader with a 2.95% gain on the week and was the only market with a higher return over the past five days. On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell by -4.62% and was followed by Heating Oil which dropped by -6.86%. Gasoline saw a sharp drop by -11.21% followed by WTI Crude Oil which was lower by -12.16%.
The biggest decliner on the week was Brent Oil with a -12.90% decline.
Energy Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Gasoline
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (64.5 percent) and Gasoline (62.4 percent) lead the energy markets this week. Heating Oil (54.6 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (15.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (29.1 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (15.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (13.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (33.8 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.8 percent)
Gasoline (62.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (66.0 percent)
Heating Oil (54.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (64.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (64.7 percent)
Brent Oil tops the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (20.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only market with a positive trend for the energy markets.
WTI Crude (-22.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-20.9 percent) as the next market with a lower trend score.
Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-22.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (20.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (19.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-20.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-16.6 percent)
Gasoline (-1.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.4 percent)
Heating Oil (-7.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (1.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-2.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-1.9 percent)
Individual COT Market Charts:
WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position rise of 5,946 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,343 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.0 | 47.5 | 4.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.8 | 53.4 | 2.7 |
| – Net Position: | 80,289 | -111,277 | 30,988 |
| – Gross Longs: | 324,523 | 907,237 | 82,416 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 244,234 | 1,018,514 | 51,428 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.2 | 80.1 | 62.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.8 | 20.7 | 4.4 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,560 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 40.0 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.0 | 28.5 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | -31,538 | 23,809 | 7,729 |
| – Gross Longs: | 30,658 | 82,962 | 14,574 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 62,196 | 59,153 | 6,845 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.1 | 59.3 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.0 | -30.0 | 53.3 |
Natural Gas Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -258,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -255,164 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.7 | 37.0 | 3.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.1 | 22.5 | 2.4 |
| – Net Position: | -258,863 | 243,049 | 15,814 |
| – Gross Longs: | 279,879 | 621,081 | 55,560 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 538,742 | 378,032 | 39,746 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 43.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.9 | 19.4 | 7.1 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,465 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.1 | 40.0 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 64.0 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 68,151 | -76,931 | 8,780 |
| – Gross Longs: | 105,881 | 127,624 | 22,896 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,730 | 204,555 | 14,116 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 62.4 | 34.9 | 57.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.1 | 7.6 | -30.3 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,671 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.6 | 49.3 | 18.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.4 | 56.9 | 13.4 |
| – Net Position: | 5,464 | -18,646 | 13,182 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,337 | 120,697 | 45,930 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,873 | 139,343 | 32,748 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.6 | 46.0 | 54.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.3 | 13.2 | -21.7 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lowering of -146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,021 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 61.1 | 37.5 | 0.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 69.4 | 29.3 | 0.0 |
| – Net Position: | -17,167 | 16,751 | 416 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,984 | 76,751 | 467 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 142,151 | 60,000 | 51 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 9.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.5 | 35.5 | 64.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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