COT Metals Charts: Silver leads Weekly Speculator Bets
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a modest rise by 1,548 contracts on the week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-10,607 contracts), Gold (-6,903 contracts), Platinum (-2,629 contracts), Palladium (-2,462 contracts) and with Steel (-807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Platinum leads Metals Price Performances
In the major Metals markets this week, Platinum led the price performances over the past five days with a 6.89% gain. Silver came in next with a 5.75% rise on the week followed by Gold which was higher by 4.87%. Steel was next with a 4.73% rise while Palladium was up by 4.37%.
On the downside, Copper was the biggest decliner on the week with a -3.27% drop.
Metals Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (56 percent) and Steel (55 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) and Silver (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (26.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.0 percent)
Silver (16.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.3 percent)
Copper (56.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (64.7 percent)
Platinum (27.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.2 percent)
Palladium (10.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.9 percent)
Steel (54.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (58.4 percent)
Silver & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed all the markets covered had lower trend scores currently. Silver (-8 percent) and Steel (-18 percent) had the least negative scores while Palladium (-51 percent) and Copper (-42 percent) had the most negative trends.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-25.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-23.8 percent)
Silver (-7.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.3 percent)
Copper (-42.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-21.4 percent)
Platinum (-21.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-14.8 percent)
Palladium (-51.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-37.6 percent)
Steel (-18.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (-15.6 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -6,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,451 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.2 | 16.1 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.3 | 67.4 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 179,548 | -204,902 | 25,354 |
| – Gross Longs: | 220,530 | 64,326 | 46,024 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,982 | 269,228 | 20,670 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.4 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 26.3 | 72.2 | 40.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -25.1 | 31.1 | -34.2 |
Silver Comex Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,703 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.0 | 27.9 | 21.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.6 | 57.9 | 10.1 |
| – Net Position: | 21,251 | -34,756 | 13,505 |
| – Gross Longs: | 37,002 | 32,218 | 25,161 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,751 | 66,974 | 11,656 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.1 | 91.0 | 24.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.7 | 17.8 | -33.2 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lowering of -10,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,317 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.1 | 38.5 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.6 | 51.2 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 37,710 | -41,923 | 4,213 |
| – Gross Longs: | 85,660 | 126,082 | 16,548 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 47,950 | 168,005 | 12,335 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.2 | 46.4 | 36.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -42.2 | 43.3 | -29.3 |
Platinum Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -2,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,294 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.9 | 29.4 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.6 | 39.5 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 6,665 | -9,256 | 2,591 |
| – Gross Longs: | 28,239 | 26,823 | 6,611 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 21,574 | 36,079 | 4,020 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.6 | 82.4 | 28.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.8 | 26.9 | -20.8 |
Palladium Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,841 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.2 | 48.3 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 76.4 | 11.6 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | -12,303 | 11,248 | 1,055 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,120 | 14,815 | 2,987 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,423 | 3,567 | 1,932 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 4.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 10.6 | 86.5 | 55.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -51.3 | 49.0 | -8.7 |
Steel Futures Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 4,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position reduction of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,600 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 69.1 | 1.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.2 | 81.9 | 0.3 |
| – Net Position: | 4,793 | -5,153 | 360 |
| – Gross Longs: | 10,067 | 27,636 | 463 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,274 | 32,789 | 103 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 4.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.6 | 44.7 | 57.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.4 | 20.0 | -42.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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