Fitch affirms ASML rating at ’A+’ on lithography leadership

Fitch Ratings affirmed ASML Holding N.V.’s (NASDAQ:ASML) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ’A+’ with a Stable Outlook on Thursday. The rating reflects the company’s dominant position in lithography tools critical to semiconductor manufacturing and its exclusive production of extreme ultraviolet tools.

ASML holds close to a 90% share in the immersion deep ultraviolet segment and remains the only producer of the industry’s most advanced EUV lithography machines. The company announced it is close to being fully covered with orders for its most revenue generative low numerical aperture EUV tools for 2027 and expects to increase tool capacity by 30% that year. The company is preparing for a further 30% capacity expansion in 2028.

The rating agency expects ASML to maintain positive cash flow generation even during a moderately weak phase of the semiconductor cycle or under heavier export restrictions. Fitch forecasts close to 30% average year-over-year revenue growth in 2026-2027 and gross margin of around 55% in 2025, gradually improving to 56% by 2029. Over 80% of the cost base consists of externally sourced materials with a portion of R&D being outsourced.

ASML’s four largest customers each accounted for more than 10% of net sales and a combined 61% of total sales in 2025. The company expects China to account for approximately 20% of its 2026 revenue, down from 29% in 2025 and 36% in 2024. Customers in Taiwan and South Korea represented 26% and 25% of 2025 sales.

Fitch noted geopolitical risks across the order book and supply chain, customer concentration risk and high semiconductor industry volatility as rating constraints. The agency said a downgrade could occur if ASML loses major market share or if EBITDA net leverage rises above 0.8x on a sustained basis.