CoreWeave vs Nebius: valuation, balance sheet, and catalysts compared

Neither stock is cheap in an absolute sense. On the data in hand, CoreWeave (CRWV) screens as the better value, and Nebius (NBIS) as the cleaner balance sheet. That trade-off is the whole debate. Both stocks are in free fall, and Nebius has just reported.

Today’s tape

Quotes are as of Nov 12, 2026, 3:16 PM EST.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Trading at $55.94 (-7.95%) (Market Cap: $33.52B) || 1M: -30.3% || 3M: -48.1% || 1W: +28.1%

Nebius (NBIS): Trading at $126.53 (-18.20%) (Market Cap: $42.4B) || 1M: -39.8% || 3M: -51.2% || YTD: +45.3%

Nebius sold off after its Q3 print. CoreWeave is trading in sympathy, after a one-week rally on its own earnings.

Fundamentals face-off

Nebius fundamentals in FinQL are as of Jun 30, 2026. They predate Thursday’s Q3 report and the $5B convertible mentioned in the corpus.

Valuation. The multiples below are computed from the figures above. They are rough, because the Nebius enterprise value is also dated Jun 30.

• CoreWeave’s enterprise value is about $93B (Sep 30, 2026). That is roughly 9x trailing revenue and 17.9x EV/EBITDA.
• Nebius’s enterprise value is about $43B. That is roughly 30x trailing revenue and 166x EV/EBITDA.
• On forward numbers the gap narrows. Nebius guides 2027 revenue to $12–13B, and CoreWeave’s next four quarters sum to about $23.6B on the FinQL forecast. Both land near 3–4x forward sales.

Balance sheet. CoreWeave carries the risk here. Its debt is about $66B and its Altman Z-Score is 0.1. Nebius’s leverage is far lighter, though its capex is now guided to about $27B for 2026.

Sentiment and catalysts

CoreWeave’s bull case. Its Q3 beat EPS estimates by 18%. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3B and ARR guidance to $20–21B. Backlog is about $133B. Adjusted operating margin rose to 10% from 1% in Q1. It also laid out a plan to shift from unsecured bonds to delayed-draw term loans (DDTLs), plus a lower-capital "Omni" model (Nov 10, 2026). The financing pivot eased balance-sheet concerns (Nov 11, 2026). Bear case: interest expense is guided at $1.05–1.15B for Q4 alone, and capex is $37–39B.

Nebius’s mixed print. The stock fell on an EPS miss and higher capex guidance. Management called the capex change "timing, not demand" and said no capacity additions were cancelled (Nov 12, 2026).

• It guides 2027 revenue up about 4x to $12–13B.
• It expects pre-tax break-even in Q4 2027.
• It expects about 40% adjusted EBITDA margin and 5 GW of contracted power.
• Red flag: it will stop guiding ARR after the February update, which removes a metric investors tracked.
• The earlier preview flagged an expected $18B raise in 2027 and dilution as the core bear argument (Nov 11, 2026).

Weighing it

• Cheaper: CoreWeave, on both the FinQL fair value model and the multiples. The fair value is $76.49, versus $125.28 for Nebius, which sits right at its fair value.
• Safer funding: Nebius, by a wide margin.
• Cleaner momentum: neither. Both are down about 50% in three months. CoreWeave’s results were just validated, while Nebius is digesting a miss.
• Execution risk: CoreWeave is levered to a smooth debt roll. Nebius is priced for its 2027 ramp to arrive on time.

The analyst-target upside readings (about 131% and 120%) carry stale as-of dates, so they should not be relied upon.

Historical data is limited to 10 years on Pro+ plan.