Coca-Cola HBC Q3 revenue beats forecasts, 2026 growth outlook raised

Coca-Cola HBC raised its full-year organic revenue growth forecast on Wednesday after third-quarter sales and volumes beat expectations, driven by resilient summer demand and strong energy drink sales, but kept its operating profit outlook unchanged.

The bottler reported organic revenue growth of 9% for the three months ended October 2, beating the 8% analyst consensus. Organic volumes rose 5.4%, above expectations of 4.8%.

Net sales revenue increased to €3.50 billion from €3.20 billion a year earlier, while organic revenue per case rose 3.4%.

Coca-Cola HBC now expects 2026 organic revenue growth to be slightly above its previous forecast range of 6% to 7%, which had assumed growth towards the upper end.

It maintained its forecast for organic operating profit growth of 8% to 10%, below the 10.2% consensus, citing the phasing of earnings, higher costs in the second half and reinvestment.

The company lowered its net finance cost forecast to €35 million to €45 million from €40 million to €50 million. It expects an effective tax rate of 26% to 28% and a foreign exchange tailwind of €0 million to €10 million on comparable operating profit.

Organic revenue grew 8% in Established markets, 8.7% in Developing markets and 9.8% in Emerging markets.

Volumes in Established markets rose 5.6%, supported by favourable weather in Western Europe and commercial execution. Switzerland recorded low-double-digit growth, while Italy and Greece grew at mid-single-digit rates.

Developing market volumes increased 3.7%, with price and product mix contributing 4.8%. The Czech Republic recorded low-teens growth.

Emerging market volumes rose 5.8%, supported by low-teens growth in Nigeria and high-single-digit growth in Egypt. Volumes in Ukraine fell more than 20% because of supply chain disruptions that began in early September.

By category, sparkling drink volumes rose 4.5%, while energy drink volumes surged 24.7%. Out-of-home coffee volumes increased 10.1%, although total coffee volumes fell 2.3%. Stills volumes grew 3.2% and sports drinks increased by more than 20%.

Trademark Coca-Cola recorded mid-single-digit growth, with Coke Zero growing at a mid-teens rate and Coke Zero Zero delivering triple-digit growth.

Non-Alcoholic Ready-To-Drink value share increased by 70 basis points year-to-date, while sparkling drinks gained 40 basis points.

The acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa remains on track to close by the end of 2026. The company has received regulatory clearance in five of six jurisdictions, with Tanzania still pending.

Coca-Cola HBC said the fourth quarter would face a headwind from four fewer selling days compared with the same period last year.

“Whilst CCH is not immune from a more volatile external environment, investments made around commercial capabilities and portfolio are increasing CCH’s resilience and ability to execute. CCBA adds the next leg of growth,” said analysts at Jefferies in a note.