Gold Is Testing $4,000 — Could These 10 Mining Stocks Rebound First?

• Gold is testing a key technical support level after falling 15% over the past two months.
• Several fundamental factors continue to support the outlook for higher gold prices.
• Which gold stocks offer the best opportunities to benefit from a potential rebound?

Gold is trading at around $4,030 per ounce this Tuesday, approaching the key $3,900–$4,000 support zone.

Last week, gold recorded its steepest weekly decline since June, falling about 4%. Prices briefly slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Friday and again on Monday, a level last seen in mid-July.

The correction has been substantial. Gold is down 15.3% from its most recent major high of $4,755, reached on August 25, and 28.4% from its all-time high of $5,626.80.

The main source of pressure has been the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid the conflict in the Middle East, reigniting inflation concerns.

Following a rate hike in September, markets now assign nearly an 80% probability to another increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The US dollar remains firm, while US bond yields are hovering around 5%. Against this backdrop, gold’s lack of yield makes it less attractive compared with interest-bearing assets.

Why Gold Could Rebound 

However, several factors point to a potential rebound in gold prices, starting with the major technical support zone between $3,900 and $4,000 per ounce.

More importantly, central banks remain significant buyers of gold and have used the recent decline to increase their holdings. According to preliminary data from the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a net 63 metric tons of gold in September, their largest monthly total in nearly two years. China accounted for 23 metric tons of these purchases, while Chinese gold ETFs reached a record 304 metric tons in holdings.

Major banks also remain optimistic about gold’s medium-term outlook. Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end 2026 price target of $4,900 per ounce, implying upside of about 21.6% from the current price. UBS, meanwhile, expects structural demand from buyers to provide support around the $4,000 level.

Finally, the market is deeply oversold. By mid-October, gold had already recorded seven consecutive weeks of declines, a losing streak not seen since 1996, even before last week’s selloff. The Federal Reserve meeting, which concludes tomorrow, could prove decisive. A less hawkish tone than markets anticipate could trigger a technical rebound from these oversold levels.

Mining Stocks: A Complement to Exposure to Gold

Gold mining stocks offer several advantages for investors seeking to capitalize on a potential rebound in gold prices, making them a useful complement to direct exposure to the metal.

First, they offer leverage to gold prices. Producers’ profits are highly sensitive to changes in the price of gold, meaning their shares have historically amplified the metal’s price movements. Second, profit margins remain substantial even with gold trading around $4,000 per ounce. Agnico Eagle forecasts all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,400 to $1,550 per ounce in 2026, while Barrick expects costs of $1,760 to $1,950. Finally, unlike physical gold, mining stocks can pay dividends and involve no storage costs.

However, mining stocks are also more volatile and exposed to operational risks, including rising costs and production uncertainties. Financial strength is therefore a key factor when selecting companies in the sector.

These 10 US mining stocks combine potential with financial strength

We used the Investing.com screener to identify US stocks that meet the following criteria:

• Market capitalization greater than $1 billion
• Metals and mining sector
• Upside potential of more than 20% according to InvestingPro Fair Value, which synthesizes several recognized valuation models
• Upside potential of more than 20% based on the average analyst price target
• InvestingPro Financial Health Score greater than 3/5

This research has allowed us to identify 10 stocks:

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Specifically, these US stocks in the metals and mining sector show upside potential ranging from +20.1% to +37.7% based on Fair Value and from +22.9% to +89.3% based on analyst consensus.

Among these stocks are:

• Newmont (NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, offers exposure to gold backed by one of the sector’s stronger cost structures. The company has lowered its 2026 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) target to approximately $1,520 per ounce, leaving it with a comfortable margin even if gold falls below $4,000. Its third-quarter results, released on October 22, exceeded expectations, with record adjusted EPS of $2.20 against consensus of $1.94, revenue of $6.36 billion and free cash flow of $1.9 billion. However, the stock fell following the announcement. InvestingPro’s Fair Value indicates 20.1% upside, while analyst price targets suggest potential gains of 22.9%. Management also expects production growth to resume as early as 2027.
• B2Gold (BTG) offers a more speculative way to bet on a gold price rebound. The mid-sized producer operates mines in Mali, Namibia, the Philippines and Canada’s Far North, where its Goose mine is ramping up production. A fire at its crushing plant in April weighed on second-quarter results, with adjusted EPS falling to $0.03, well below consensus. Earnings were also affected by $71 million in hedging losses. However, several banks upgraded their recommendations after the company secured an operating permit for Menankoto in Mali, although the country remains a risk factor. With all-in costs forecast at $2,370 to $2,550 per ounce, the company retains a substantial margin at current gold prices. Its November 4 earnings report will be an important test. InvestingPro’s Fair Value indicates 22.3% upside, while analyst targets suggest potential gains of 31.7%.

However, other stocks on the list offer greater upside potential based on both analyst price targets and InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimates.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.