Anthropic’s $1.5T IPO Is Coming - Is AI Growth Worth the Price?

Anthropic’s IPO could value the company at around $1.5T, making it one of the largest stock market debuts ever. That figure is already 25% below the $2T valuation some investors had previously considered. Anthropic’s revenue is still growing fast, but so are its computing costs. The latest financial figures offer a closer look at what investors would be paying for, and how the IPO could affect other major AI stocks.

Why Has Anthropic’s Valuation Dropped From $2T to $1.5T?

Anthropic (⁠ANTHROPIC-USDT) generated $16.96B in revenue during Q3, bringing its total for the first nine months of 2026 to $33.2B, about 13 times last year’s figure.

Even with that growth, some investors have cut their valuation expectations by 25%, from $2T to around $1.5T. Their concerns center on three areas:

• Growth is losing momentum. Revenue rose 144% in Q2, but the increase was down to 47% in Q3.

• A return to operating losses. Anthropic earned $974M from operations in Q2, then swung to a $567M loss in Q3.

• Rising computing costs. Anthropic has committed $895.4B to future computing and infrastructure spending, including nearly $70B due within the next 12 months. The agreements span multiple years, but they also mean substantial future payments.

Anthropic has delivered exceptional revenue growth. Turning that growth into steady profits will be much harder.

How Much Is Anthropic Worth at $1.5T?

Using its latest quarterly revenue of $16.96B, Anthropic is generating roughly $67.8B a year at the current pace. A $1.5T valuation would put its price at about 22.1 times that annualized revenue.

Anthropic’s own projections suggest a much larger business by 2028, with annual revenue expected to reach $190B to $200B. If it hits those figures, the same $1.5T valuation would equal just 7.5 to 7.9 times annual sales.

Reaching that target would require Anthropic to nearly triple its current annualized revenue within two years. With quarterly revenue growth already slowing, investors are relying heavily on the company meeting its ambitious forecasts.

Profitability adds another layer of uncertainty. Anthropic reported a $23.3B net loss in Q3, although most of it came from non-cash financing adjustments. Its operating loss was much smaller at $567M.

This means the headline net loss overstates the company’s underlying operating losses. Still, Anthropic needs to show that its revenue can eventually grow faster than its computing costs.

A $1.5T valuation leaves little room for slower growth or weaker profitability.

Beyond Anthropic: Who Wins From the AI Boom?

Investors holding Amazon (⁠AMZN-USDT), Alphabet (⁠GOOGL-USDT), Microsoft or Nvidia already have some indirect exposure to Anthropic. All four companies have invested in the AI developer, even though its shares are not yet publicly traded.

Their involvement extends beyond equity investments. These companies also provide computing infrastructure, cloud services and distribution channels that support Anthropic’s growth.

Anthropic has committed at least $269B to computing services from Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) under long-term agreements. Meanwhile, nearly half of its revenue flows through major cloud marketplaces. These companies can benefit from Anthropic’s growth through both their investments and commercial partnerships.

The arrangement also carries risks. If AI demand slows, Anthropic could face pressure from its large computing commitments, while its partners may see weaker infrastructure demand.

Anthropic’s IPO will therefore test more than its own $1.5T valuation. It could also influence how investors assess the returns and risks of the wider AI infrastructure boom.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out above is for informational purposes only.

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