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Fundies Cheat Sheet Recap: Oct. 19–23, 2026

By Niko5 min readBaby Pips
Fundies Cheat Sheet Recap: Oct. 19–23, 2026Fundies Cheat Sheet Recap: Oct. 19–23, 2026

The oil and AI lanes started on top and ran the week. Every close stayed inside the map, but gold fell on the day yields fell.

Chip and AI shares set the tone for stocks again this week. They lifted the S&P 500 through Wednesday, then dragged it down on Thursday after Meta’s results. The index finished about 0.3% lower, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased from about 5.08% to near 5.00% as investors appeared to buy bonds during the selloff.

Oil rose about 4% and closed near $105.29. Almost all of the gain came on Thursday and Friday. Attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports of planned U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran appeared to outweigh three days of peace talk. Gold fell about 4% and closed near $4,000, including a 2.6% drop on the day yields fell. Bitcoin and the dollar index ended almost where they started.

The Fed stayed in its quiet period, but other central banks kept talking. Hawkish comments in Canada and Australia appeared to lift their currencies, and the euro finished last among the majors as French borrowing costs climbed.

This week’s cycle: Sunday Cheat Sheet → Saturday Recap (you are here)

1. Scorecard

Each row is a scenario we gave odds to on Sunday. ✅ means right, 🟡 half-right, ❌ wrong.

ScenarioSunday oddsWhat happenedGrade
A: Oil keeps inflation worries alive, yields climb back15%The trigger never fired. The 10-year yield peaked near 5.15% on Monday and never closed above 5.14%, and the dollar index never closed above 102.20. Oil did feed inflation worries late in the week, likely fueling gold’s weakness as higher oil probably fueled December hike bets to roughly 78%. That was part of the lane’s story in one market, without the yield move it needed.❌ Wrong
B: A stock selloff pulls yields lower17%Half fired. The 10-year yield closed near 4.97% on Thursday, under 5.04%, as investors appeared to buy bonds during the AI selloff, and it stayed under on Friday. The dollar index dipped to about 101.44 but never closed below 101.58. Stocks and Bitcoin fell on Thursday as the lane said. Gold fell about 2.6% instead of lifting.🟡 Half-right
C: Inflation abroad moves the dollar index12%The trigger did not fire. Canada’s inflation came in under forecast (3.1% against 3.2%), Japan’s was in line, and only the UK’s beat (3.5% against 3.4%). Rate-hike talk abroad still appeared to lift the Australian and Canadian dollars, and the dollar lost ground to most majors. The euro fell on French bond stress, and because the euro is more than half of the index, the DXY ended roughly flat.❌ Wrong
D: The growth scare8%Correctly small. Jobless claims fell to 194,000 against 200,000 expected, the U.S. flash factory reading rose to 56.0, its highest in 53 months, and consumer sentiment beat at 48.0 against 46.3. Housing data was weak. Stocks fell on Thursday on chip and AI news, not on growth worries.✅ Right read
W: Oil: supply damage keeps the premium building26%Fired late, and the physical side won by Friday. Oil closed under $101.33 from Monday to Thursday, and calming headlines took it to about $97 on Tuesday. Attacks on Saudi sites and reports of planned U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran then lifted it to a Friday close near $105.29, about 5 cents under our $105.34 reference. It was narrowly the biggest move on the board, ahead of gold’s 4% drop.✅ Right
X: AI and chip earnings lead stocks22%Fired, and it ran stocks again. Chip shares bounced on Monday, and the S&P 500 closed above 7,700 on Tuesday and Wednesday before topping out about 5 points above 7,765. After Meta’s results, Meta fell as much as 7.6% on Thursday and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.5% at one point. The S&P 500 lost about 1.2%, Bitcoin fell with it, and the 10-year yield fell with stocks, as the lane’s deeper branch said.✅ Right

Honest calibration note.

  • The two lanes with no schedule started at the top this week, oil at 26% and AI shares at 22%, and both ran the week. Last week, as in August, the winning lanes started below the base case, so the ranking moved in the right direction.
  • Every daily close stayed inside the map on all five markets, after 8 of 10 sides held in each of the previous two weeks. The new references one normal day beyond last week’s highs and lows did most of the work. Gold closed about $6 above $3,994, and oil closed about 5 cents under $105.34.
  • The oil lane was right by Friday and wrong for the three sessions before it. Calming headlines took oil to about $97 on Tuesday, and only Friday closed above $101.33, so the break had no next session to confirm it.
  • The biggest miss was gold. The sheet read gold off the 10-year yield first, and on Thursday the yield fell while gold dropped about 2.6%.

The following breakdown and analysis is for Premium members only. This grades our Sunday Cheat Sheet against what actually happened. Intended for analysis and educational purposes only; not trading or investment advice.

2. How Each Market Did

US Dollar Index ✅

What we said: the dollar index sat at 101.78, about 0.20 above last week’s low of 101.58. The range that mattered was 101.58 to 102.20. A close under 101.58 would say the slide was extending, as Scenarios B and C described, with 101.40 next. A close above 102.20 would say rising yields were lifting the dollar, as in Scenario A.

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