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Fundies Cheat Sheet, Oct 26–30, 2026

By Niko4 min readBaby Pips
Fundies Cheat Sheet, Oct 26–30, 2026Fundies Cheat Sheet, Oct 26–30, 2026

Five central banks decide and Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report. A Fed hold is priced in, so Warsh’s December tone may set yields, the dollar and gold.

Last week oil rose about 4% and gold fell about 4%, and most of both moves came on Thursday and Friday. Attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports of planned U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran appeared to lift oil to about $105.29. Gold dropped about 2.6% on Thursday as Meta and chip shares slid, even though the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (the interest rate the government pays to borrow money for ten years) fell. The S&P 500 lost about 0.3%, and Bitcoin and the dollar index ended almost flat.

This week brings the busiest calendar in more than a month. The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (the Fed), announces its decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Futures put the chance of a hold near 90%, so Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference may matter more than the decision. The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also decide. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report after the New York close on Wednesday and Thursday.

Oil starts the week near $105 after Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they attacked Saudi oil sites on Saturday. One target was the pipeline Saudi Arabia uses to send oil around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. growth and inflation reports land on Thursday. The daily close, the price at the end of each trading day, keeps score.

Premium members only. Intended for analysis and educational purposes only; not trading or investment advice.

1. This Week on One Screen

One sentence: With a Fed hold expected, Warsh’s tone on December may set the 10-year yield, the dollar and gold, while oil follows the attacks around Saudi Arabia.

What is happening this week (all times in GMT, the world clock traders use)

EventWhen (GMT)Why it matters
Oil, Iran, Saudi and Houthi headlinesAny time; markets reopen Sun Oct 25, 22:00 (6 pm in New York)No schedule. On Saturday the Houthis said they targeted an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West pipeline. These are claims, and damage has not been confirmed. The first oil price of the week may gap.
Israeli electionTue Oct 27 (all day)The result may affect how soon fighting with Iran restarts. A new prime minister may be less eager to begin with a war.
U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board)Tue Oct 27, 14:00 (New York morning)Seen at 80.0 after 81.9. High fuel prices may be weighing on how U.S. households feel.
Australia consumer prices (CPI)Wed Oct 28, 00:30 (Asian session)0.6% m/m forecast vs. 0.4% m/m previous. It mainly moves the Australian dollar, which led the majors last week on rate-hike talk.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisionWed Oct 28, 01:00; press conference 02:00 (Asian session)Traders have priced a hike as close to certain. Likely to move the New Zealand dollar this week.
Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy ReportWed Oct 28, 13:45 (New York morning)Seen hiking to 2.50% from 2.25%, its first hike in a year. The Canadian dollar is part of the dollar index.
Fed decision and statementWed Oct 28, 18:00 (New York afternoon)Seen holding at 3.75%–4.00%. Futures put the odds of a hike near 10%. Most measures see a December hike as more likely than not.
Fed press conferenceWed Oct 28, 18:30 (New York afternoon)Warsh’s answers about December may move the 10-year yield more than the decision. There are no new rate projections at this meeting.
Microsoft and Alphabet earningsWed Oct 28, after the New York close (from 20:00)Two hours after the Fed. Their spending on AI data centers may show whether last Thursday’s chip selloff deepens or eases.
U.S. core PCE inflation and first estimate of third-quarter growth (GDP)Thu Oct 29, 12:30 (New York morning)Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, without food and energy) is seen at +0.2% for the month after +0.2%. Growth is seen at a 3.1% annual rate after 2.2%.
European Central Bank decision and press conferenceThu Oct 29, 13:15 and 13:45 (London afternoon, New York morning)Seen holding its deposit rate at 2.5%. The euro is more than half of the dollar index, and it fell last week as French borrowing costs rose.
Amazon and Intel earningsThu Oct 29, after the New York close (from 20:00)A second evening of AI spending news. Friday’s session carries the reaction.
Bank of Japan decisionFri Oct 30, 03:00 (Asian session); press conference later, time not fixedSeen holding at 1.25%. The yen is part of the dollar index.
Fed speakers returnFri Oct 30 (times not confirmed)The Fed’s quiet period ends on Thursday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak. Friday is the last session, so no next day can confirm a Friday move.

The six ways the week could go

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