Bitcoin price today: Will $201M ETF outflows and CPI send BTC to $70,000?

Bitcoin BTC has slightly recovered from Monday’s selloff and is now trading around $74,700 as investors await the release of the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. 

The cryptocurrency continues to struggle below key technical resistance levels following last week's decline, with weakening institutional demand limiting recovery attempts.

US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded another round of withdrawals on Monday, extending the negative momentum seen in recent weeks.

However, corporate Bitcoin accumulation remains active, with Michael Saylor's Strategy announcing another purchase of 1,036 BTC.

Bitcoin price today: US CPI data could trigger fresh volatility

Investors are closely watching Tuesday's US inflation report for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

The October CPI figures arrive at a critical time for financial markets, following stronger-than-expected US employment data that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Last week's upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report suggested that the US labor market remains resilient, potentially giving the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to raise borrowing costs.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool figures, traders currently assign more than an 80% probability to an interest rate hike at the Fed's December meeting.

A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen expectations of additional monetary tightening, potentially triggering renewed selling pressure across the cryptocurrency market.

On the other hand, softer inflation figures could ease concerns about further rate increases and encourage investors to increase their exposure to riskier assets.

Geopolitical developments are also contributing to uncertainty in financial markets, with conflicting statements surrounding the possibility of ending the US-Iran conflict.

US President Donald Trump recently expressed optimism about progress toward ending the conflict, suggesting that renewed military strikes were unlikely and describing the confrontation as effectively over.

However, Iranian officials have disputed reports of active peace negotiations.

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, dismissed claims of ongoing talks and reiterated that Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions before the conflict can end.

Bitcoin ETF outflows continue as investors withdraw $201 million

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains weak, with US spot ETFs extending their recent withdrawal streak.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $201.08 million in net outflows on Monday, continuing the negative trend established last week.

The latest withdrawals followed $1.28 billion in net outflows during the previous week, representing the largest weekly redemptions since late June.

The sustained selling pressure suggests that institutional investors remain cautious about Bitcoin's near-term outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating technical conditions.

While ETF investors continue reducing their exposure, corporate Bitcoin accumulation remains active.

Michael Saylor announced on Monday that Strategy acquired an additional 1,036 BTC, extending the company's long-standing Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Following the latest purchase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings increased to 850,364 BTC.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC risks falling toward $70,000

Bitcoin's technical outlook remains bearish as the cryptocurrency continues trading below its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

At the time of writing on Tuesday, BTC trades around $74,700, with sellers maintaining control following last week's breakdown below important technical support.

BTC remains below its 200-day EMA at $76,444, which represents the nearest significant resistance level.

Higher resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $77,574 and the 50-day EMA at $79,141. Beyond these levels, the next significant horizontal resistance stands near $85,000.

Momentum indicators also reinforce the bearish outlook. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, indicating weak buying momentum and suggesting that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, highlighting persistent downward momentum.

If Bitcoin continues declining, the psychological $70,000 level could emerge as the next major support area.

A decisive breakdown below this threshold would weaken the technical structure further and potentially expose BTC to additional losses.

The near-term outlook remains bearish while BTC trades below $76,444, with the psychological $70,000 level representing the next major downside target.

Tuesday's CPI report could play a decisive role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes around current levels or extends its correction.

AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.