Red state apocalypse: Stunning poll shows Democrats sweeping across Texas

Democrats are ahead in every statewide contest in Texas, according to a new 254 Labs poll of races across the state. The survey, conducted between October 21 and 26, questioned 1,000 registered voters and was weighted to likely-voter targets provided by 254 Labs, including early-voting turnout.

In the Senate race, the poll puts James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 51% to 43%, with 5% undecided. Talarico leads among independent voters nearly two to one, 60% to 31%, with 5% of that group also undecided. Among voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in November than in previous elections, Talarico leads Paxton 57% to 41%.

The rest of the Democratic statewide ticket holds narrower advantages in the poll. Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott by 49% to 46% in the race for governor. Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick 48% to 45% for lieutenant governor. Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton 47% to 45% in the contest for attorney general. Jon Rosenthal leads Bo French 47% to 43% in the race for railroad commissioner.

President Donald Trump campaigned in Texas on Tuesday, a state that has traditionally been solidly Republican, in an effort to boost US Senate candidate Ken Paxton and other members of their party. The visit aimed to fend off what could be the first statewide Democratic victory in 32 years.

With high fuel prices weighing heavily on the campaign for the November 3 congressional elections, Trump scheduled two stops at opposite ends of the oil-producing state. He appeared before a tanker holding Venezuelan crude in the Gulf of Mexico, and announced the easing of methane rules for oil and gas producers at a later stop in the West Texas city of Lubbock.

"Tonight, I'm officially terminating Biden's expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs, unlock vast quantities of Texas natural gas and produce 210 million barrels of oil," Trump said.

The trip was Trump's third to Texas this month to mobilize support for Paxton, who is locked in a close race with Democrat James Talarico. A loss in Texas next Tuesday would complicate the Republican Party's path to retaining its slim Senate majority. Trump sought to show voters he was working to bring down gasoline prices a week before the midterm elections, when the balance of power in Congress will be at stake.

Polls show the Democrats may retake control of one or both houses from the president's Republicans. Fuel prices have become a political liability for Republicans amid the US war with Iran, and Trump has taken a number of steps to address them.

The rally took place with an oil tanker moored near the Port of Corpus Christi in view. Trump said the tanker was loaded with the first oil received from Venezuela under a deal that Washington made after deposing the country's former leader.

"We're celebrating the greatest oil victory in history. To the victor belongs the spoils, right?" Trump said. Texas has long been a major refining center for Venezuelan crude oil. Trump announced an agreement in August that grants the US access to a fifth of Venezuela's crude reserves. The White House said in September that oil from the deal would probably hit US reserves in November. A White House official told Reuters the oil is slated to head to refineries owned by ExxonMobil and Citgo.

Texas has consistently voted Republican for 30 years, but Democrats raised their hopes this year when Paxton won the Senate nomination with Trump's backing. Paxton was indicted on securities-fraud charges in 2015 and impeached by the Texas House in 2023. Prosecutors dismissed the criminal case in 2024 after an agreement, and the Texas Senate acquitted him in the impeachment trial. Trump has publicly criticized his longtime ally Paxton, calling him "a pain in the ass sometimes."

He also heavily criticized Talarico, whom he accused of opposing Texas values on issues such as oil production, immigration and transgender rights. Tech billionaire Elon Musk and other donors are pouring hundreds of millions into a late effort to rescue Paxton's campaign.

"Our policy has always been drill, baby, drill. And man, we are drilling now. But if Texas elects Communist James 'Talafreako,' that wealth will rapidly disappear," Trump said, applying his preferred nickname to the Democratic candidate.

Talarico has used the nickname as a fundraising tool, selling 'I'm a Talafreako' T-shirts, while also responding, "We are a threat to their corrupt system." During a later stop in Lubbock, Trump announced an Environmental Protection Agency proposal to roll back Biden-era rules that required companies to fix leaky equipment and regularly check wells for escaping methane, a potent greenhouse gas, the White House official said.

The administration is casting the plan as a way to produce more energy and lower costs. It would provide relief to small, low-output wells, end a program that used outside groups to report large methane leaks, and ease rules aimed at phasing out the routine burning off of gas at oil wells, the official said.