Megachurch pastor ends Democrats' 94-year losing streak in Kansas

In a remarkable political upset in Kansas, Democratic candidate and Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton has defeated Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, flipping a seat long regarded as a safe conservative stronghold and illustrating the extent to which dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump has spread across the nation.

The victory is historic, ending a 94-year losing streak in Senate races for Kansas Democrats—the longest such drought in the United States. Total expenditure on the election reached approximately $110 million, easily setting a record for the state. A major rescue attempt by Republicans, which included two rallies hosted by Trump in October, was unable to secure Marshall a second term.

"This is amazing. We really did make history," Hamilton told his supporters. "We're not flyover country. We're the heart of the country."

Hamilton built his winning campaign by appealing to moderate Republicans and independent voters frustrated by the rising cost of living and dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy and the war with Iran. Promising to address the deep partisanship in Washington, Hamilton delivered his victory address at a hotel in the Kansas City area, stating that voters were also angry about cuts to health care and food assistance, as well as President Donald Trump's tariffs.

"I think the people in Kansas, Republicans and Democrats, are saying that what’s happening in Washington is not OK," Hamilton said. "Kansans are also fed up with the way politicians divide us."

Hamilton’s fundraising comfortably outpaced Marshall’s—particularly regarding donations from Kansas residents—while Democratic groups directed tens of millions of dollars into the state. This financial strength enabled the party to counter late campaign efforts by Trump and Vice President JD Vance to energise the Republican base through rallies across Kansas.

Hamilton is the founding pastor of the 25,000-member Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City area, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States. He entered the race with a centrist persona, a strong fundraising capability, and a public profile as the author of dozens of books.

Marshall, a retired obstetrician, was elected to the House of Representatives in 2016 before winning his Senate seat in 2020. He maintained his loyalty to Trump throughout the campaign, defending both the war and Trump’s tariffs.

Trump held rallies for Marshall on 19 October and 31 October, while Vance headlined a rally in September before returning to the state on 26 October.

During the final weeks of the campaign, Republicans focused heavily on a traditionally reliable message, arguing that electing the Democratic nominee would place liberal Democrats in control of the Senate. Speaking in Topeka, Vance called Hamilton "Chuck Schumer’s stooge," although Hamilton repeatedly stated that he would not support keeping the New York senator as Democratic leader.

                                

According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Republicans committed $45 million to television and digital advertising, while Democrats invested $65 million.

Facing only nominal primary opposition, Marshall’s campaign did not launch its television advertisements until late August, and his fundraising lagged behind. Concerned by the national profile Hamilton was gaining, Republicans redirected millions of dollars from North Carolina to Kansas. Meanwhile, Democrats continued heavy investment, spending more than $27 million on broadcast and digital advertising in the second half of October alone, according to AdImpact.

Mirroring arguments made by Trump, Marshall attributed high fuel prices to Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure during their war. Throughout the campaign, he insisted to voters that the economy remained strong and had improved under Trump.

He also faced criticism over claims that he had effectively abandoned Kansas to reside in Florida. Marshall defended owning a holiday home in Florida as a means to spend time with his family, though he sold the property last month.

The result defied decades of Kansas political history. The last Democrat to win a Senate race in the state was Wichita attorney George McGill in 1932. Kansas had not seen a genuinely close contest since 1974, when future Republican icon Bob Dole won a second term by fewer than 2 percentage points following the Watergate scandal that forced President Richard Nixon from office.

Republicans attempted to frame Hamilton as too "woke" for Kansas, highlighting his church’s support for LGBTQ rights. In the closing weeks of the race, they also focused on two allegations of sexual abuse involving teenage boys and an adult leader at annual summer camps run by Hamilton’s church in 2005 and 2006.

The church investigated the first incident in 2005 but did not notify law enforcement because the victims could not positively identify the perpetrator, allowing the man to return to the camp in 2006. The second incident was reported to the police, and the church handed over its files regarding the 2005 case, though local prosecutors did not pursue criminal charges.

The church subsequently revised its child protection policies to require all allegations to be reported immediately to law enforcement. Hamilton acknowledged that it was a mistake for the church not to report the initial 2005 incident and for him not to have personally ensured the man did not return in 2006.

Alongside a decline in Trump’s national popularity, Hamilton benefitted from broader shifts in Kansas politics. Although the state is routinely considered a conservative stronghold, it contains a significant bloc of moderate voters who have regularly helped elect Democratic governors. Suburban areas near Kansas City, Missouri, have increasingly favoured Democrats, making it possible for the party to win statewide elections by carrying the most populous counties.

Hamilton’s position on Schumer highlighted the balance he sought to strike while courting independent and Republican voters. He consistently described himself as "independent-minded" and presented himself as a potential moderate counterweight in Washington.

In another instance, he offered criticism of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement during an appearance in Topeka, while stopping short of calling for the agency to be abolished.

"They were formed to make sure that people didn’t fly airplanes into buildings again," he said, referencing the Sept. 11 terror attacks. "If they stick to what they were created for, I’m grateful for them."

His campaign also attacked Marshall—who uses the title "Doc" on his stationery—over his past practices regarding unpaid patient debt prior to his election to the House in 2016.

A report by The New York Times revealed that Marshall and his medical practice had sued more than 700 patients over his multi-decade career. In 81 instances, patients were arrested after failing to appear in court, with two experts describing the tactics as extreme. During a televised debate, Marshall rejected the claims, describing the criticism as a "gross mischaracterization" of his professional record.