Helen Haines was chatting with locals at a dog park on Monday morning. By the afternoon, she was fighting for her life

Victorian independent MP Helen Haines was at the opening of a dog park in Mansfield on Monday, out and about the sprawling northern Victorian electorate, talking to locals and moving freely.

Later in the afternoon, at 3.35pm, she was unpacking a car outside her electorate office when a man understood to be known to authorities struck her with his car. He allegedly completed a U-turn when he saw Haines.

What happened will urgently change how MPs assess their personal safety, not least because local settings are no longer free from danger.

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says the government will act on the advice of security officials but an increase in protection feels inevitable.

There is much we don’t know about what has happened, including the motivation of the alleged attacker.

But a dark tide of threats and abuse has been rising.

For years, federal politicians have had an ominous sense that something was shifting in Australia’s national life.

Monday’s alleged attack on Haines saw that tide turn into reality, with a much-loved local member critically injured in the street outside her electorate office.

Long having warned against the growing intensity of political debate, Albanese reflected the grave shock of the country in the hours after the incident.

Along with the home affairs minister, Tony Burke, Albanese revealed that recorded threats against politicians numbered more than 1,067 last financial year, as the cohort of office holders requiring around-the-clock close personal protection grew.

Those responsible for protecting federal politicians in Australia often take their cues from overseas. When a gunman opened fire at the Canadian parliament in 2014, the Abbott government built a fence around Parliament House. Amid threats stemming from Covid-19 lockdowns, and the souring of social media discourse, the Asio director general, Mike Burgess, cautioned in 2025 that the warning light for political violence was “already flashing red”.

Albanese was evacuated from The Lodge in February and a blast-resistant facility was added to his Sydney residence. December’s antisemitic massacre at Bondi was only the latest wake-up call, along with incidents overseas such as the murder of British politician Ann Widdecombe.

Here, local MPs have been changing their behaviour. Many no longer publicise where they will be for community events ahead of time, and some MPs’ local electorate offices have been closed for months at a time.

But the attack on Haines shows something rapidly being lost in our politics. The shift in sentiment can no longer be dismissed as social media noise or harmless comment.

A review of politicians’ offices last year found a sharp rise in politically motivated hostility, with 85% reporting high levels of abusive or violent behaviour from constituents. This behaviour included verbal threats, intimidation, spitting and throwing of objects.

The risk to individuals – especially women in politics – has not been taken seriously enough. Whether security services could have done more will be considered in the weeks and months to come.

But dismissing overheated political rhetoric and petty attacks as woke or overly sensitive will not cut it now, as Haines remains in a critical condition after undergoing surgery.

More needs to be done to stop a normalisation of violence and gratuitous insults. That includes the importation of rhetoric from the US and Europe, like calls for politicians to be locked up or harmed for their decisions. The politicians dishing out verbal attacks themselves, or inciting individuals to hate online, must be held accountable.

The Haines attack could prove a turning point for Australian politics, but hard questions about safety and the culture of debate must be answered.