What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index which is expected at 98.2 vs 97.9 prior. This is never a market-moving release and it won't change anything for the Fed.
The focus remains on the US-Iran developments given the significant effect the war has on the global growth outlook. The risk sentiment improved yesterday after a couple of positive headlines renewed hopes for a deal, although nothing concrete has been reached yet.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the monthly US CPI data. We won't get the year-over-year figures because of the government shutdown last year. The focus will be on the Core M/M measure which is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3% prior.
The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a rate hike in December. Given the totality of the US data, the Fed should be hiking. I don't see the data changing much at this point, although a very soft CPI could bring the probabilities for a hike lower.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - Fed's Waller (neutral - voter)
- 12:30 GMT/07:30 ET - BoE's Lombardelli (neutral - voter)
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)
- 15:50 GMT/10:50 ET - Fed's Logan (hawkish - voter)
- 16:45 GMT/11:45 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)
- 17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter)
- 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - non voter)
- 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - BoE's Pill (hawkish - voter)
- 20:30 GMT/15:30 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter)
