US intel says Putin ordered NATO sabotage drive, Leipzig drone attack an opening shot
The report raises the perceived risk of escalation between Russia and NATO, which would tend to support European defence stocks and weigh on European risk sentiment if officials respond with tougher measures. The energy channel is the one to watch: Russia’s diesel supply deal with Washington and the pause in new US sanctions were aimed partly at keeping Moscow out of the war with Iran, so any rupture in that arrangement could tighten fuel markets already strained by the Middle East conflict. Drone strikes on commercial ships in the Black Sea add a shipping risk premium near NATO waters. For now, the report adds detail and attribution rather than a new event, so the market impact may be limited unless governments act on it.
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The Leipzig attack was already pinned on Russian military intelligence, but the WSJ’s reporting moves the responsibility up to Putin himself and shows how close Germany came to invoking NATO’s mutual defence clause.
Summary:
- US intelligence agencies say Putin directly ordered an intensified campaign of sabotage and covert action against NATO countries, according to European officials cited by the Wall Street Journal (gated)
- The failed August drone attack on a cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig-Halle Airport was one of the campaign’s opening shots, they said
- Aides to Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany would have considered invoking NATO’s Article 5 had the attack caused heavy casualties
- Western intelligence traced the operation to a unit of Russia’s military intelligence, with logistics run through Serbia, where seven suspects have since been arrested
- A Kremlin back-channel contact warned Berlin after the attack that it would not be the last
- Russia denies involvement in sabotage in Europe
US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally ordered a stepped-up campaign of sabotage and covert action against NATO countries, with a failed drone attack on a German airport in August among its first operations, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing European officials briefed on the findings.
The attack at Leipzig-Halle Airport, one of Europe’s largest air-cargo hubs, targeted an Antonov freighter used to carry military aid to Ukraine. Germany formally blamed Russia for the attempt in September. The Journal’s reporting goes further, placing the order at the top of the Kremlin and framing Leipzig as part of a deliberate escalation.
Aides to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the newspaper that had the attack caused large numbers of casualties, Berlin would have considered invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the collective-defence clause that obliges allies to come to a member’s aid. It has been invoked only once, after the September 11 attacks in 2001.
According to investigators cited by the Journal, at least three drones loaded with Semtex were hidden near the airport perimeter and controlled remotely through German mobile networks. One struck the freighter without exploding. German cyber officials traced the communications to servers previously used by Russia’s military intelligence agency.
Western officials attributed the campaign to a GRU branch known as the Special Tasks Service, formed in 2023, and traced the Leipzig plot to one of its department chiefs, already under EU and UK sanctions. Investigators believe a former Russian officer coordinated the ground logistics with Belarusian operatives, using Serbia as a hub to move drones and explosives. Serbian prosecutors have since arrested seven suspects.
The report said European officials have seen a sharp rise in so-called grey-zone attacks since August, including arson against drone makers in Estonia and Poland, sabotage of Starlink stations in Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria, and drone strikes on merchant ships in the Black Sea. After the Leipzig attempt, a Kremlin back-channel contact reportedly warned Berlin that more attacks would follow.
Russia has denied involvement, with Putin questioning in September where the evidence was. The Kremlin did not respond to the Journal’s request for comment.
The findings come as Washington pursues a delicate relationship with Moscow, including a diesel supply arrangement and a pause in new sanctions that President Donald Trump has said is aimed at keeping Russia out of the war with Iran. How European governments respond, and whether Washington adjusts its approach, will be the next test.
