UBS starts bullish coverage on Ferrari Group on luxury logistics growth

UBS began coverage of specialist logistics provider Ferrari Group with a “buy” rating and a 12-month price target of €9.90, citing its exposure to the growing hard luxury goods market, where logistics demand is amplified because goods move several times across the supply chain.

UBS said the stock trades at about 7.5 times expected 2027 enterprise value to core earnings (EBITDA), a 19% discount to global logistics generalists and a valuation it called compelling given the company’s stronger end-market exposure, growth and profitability. 

It forecast a 2027 EBITDA margin of 26.2% versus 11.6% for peers, and 8% annual EBITDA growth over the next three years versus 6% for peers.

UBS expects revenue to rise from €359 million in 2025 to €485 million in 2030, a 6% annual rate at constant currency, driven mainly by higher volumes as recently opened locations ramp up. 

It forecast the adjusted EBITDA margin to widen by an average of 20 basis points a year as volumes grow, reaching 27.0% in 2030.

The margin was 25.5% in the first half of 2026, down 105 basis points from a year earlier as parts of the network ramped up, with about 20% of operations still scaling.

Management guides to 6% to 8% annual constant-currency revenue growth and a 27% to 29% margin over the medium term.

UBS forecast a dividend payout of 60% to 70% through 2030, above the 40% minimum in company policy, citing strong cash generation, while the company keeps net cash.

Management has said it may consider a special dividend in the second half of 2026 if no acquisition or strategic investment arises.

UBS’s €9.90 target blends a 7 times EV/EBITDA multiple with a discounted cash flow valuation. Its upside case is €12 a share and its downside case €5.70. UBS said the current share price implies annual revenue growth of 0% through 2030 versus its forecast of 6%.

UBS forecast 2026 earnings of €0.62 a share versus consensus of €0.59. The company will issue a third-quarter trading update on Nov 19; UBS expects revenue of €89 million, up 5.3% from a year earlier at constant currency.

UBS listed risks including customer concentration, with the top 10 customers at about 41% of 2023 revenue, and industry contracts that generally carry no minimum shipment volumes.

A partial sell-down by Deiana Holding, which owns 71.4% of the company, could add near-term supply of shares, it said.