Tompkins Financial and CNB Financial: two unconventional regional bank picks

Two unconventional banking candidates stand out: Tompkins combines 20.4% ROE with 17.0% fair-value upside, while CNB offers a cheaper 1.2x price-to-book valuation. The catch: both are regional banks, so credit quality and acquisition execution matter more than headline growth.

The Two Candidates

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP): Trading at $99.05 as of Sep 3, 10:01 AM EDT || Market cap: $1.42B || P/E: 8.0x || ROE: 20.4% || Dividend yield: 2.9% || Fair-value upside: 17.0%

CNB Financial Corporation (CCNE): Trading at $34.64 as of Sep 3, 10:09 AM EDT || Market cap: $1.02B || P/E: 11.2x || Price-to-book: 1.2x || ROE: 12.7% || Fair-value upside: -5.0%

Why TMP Is Different

Earnings have rebounded. TMP revenue reached $435.07M in fiscal 2025, versus $292.62M in 2024. Net income rose to $161.07M from $70.85M over the same period.

That produced an unusually strong 20.4% ROE, while the stock still trades at only 8.0x earnings. The market appears to be pricing in some normalization after a powerful rebound.

Bull case: TMP offers a strong combination of profitability, valuation, and modeled fair value. Its 41.62% one-year return shows the market has already recognized part of the improvement.

Bear case: The earnings increase may not represent a normal recurring trajectory. A smaller bank also carries greater exposure to local economies and individual credit events.

Why CCNE Is Unconventional

Consistency beats excitement. CCNE revenue increased from $187.21M in 2021 to $273.35M in 2025. Net income reached $61.35M in 2025, above $49.88M in 2024.

Its 1.2x price-to-book valuation remains reasonable for a bank generating 12.7% ROE. However, FinQL’s fair-value model shows 5.0% downside, despite a separate analyst-target measure showing 11.4% upside. That disagreement is important—not a footnote.

Bull case: Modest valuation, improving revenue, and a 33.18% one-year return support a credible rerating argument.

Bear case: The fair-value model offers no margin of safety, and earnings per share declined from $3.26 in 2022 to $2.49 in 2025.

Take

• More compelling value setup: Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP), because profitability and modeled fair value align.
• More contrarian value idea: CNB Financial Corporation (CCNE), because its modest valuation contrasts with improving revenue.
• Main risk: Both have already rallied strongly, so future returns depend on earnings durability—not merely cheap multiples.

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