Telsey Names Top Consumer Retail Stocks for 2026 Holiday Season

Telsey Advisory Group released its Holiday 2026 retail sales forecast, projecting growth of 5.0%-5.5% compared to 6.9% last year and 4.7% in 2024. The forecast is based on a bottom-up analysis of more than 175 publicly traded companies generating over $1 trillion in holiday-quarter sales. Direct-to-consumer sales are expected to grow 13.0% versus 13.1% last year and 10.0% in 2024. The firm identified top stock picks across multiple retail categories positioned to outperform during the holiday shopping season.

1. Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) 

Telsey rates the stock Outperform with a price target of $63. The athletic retailer is forecast to achieve 3.0% growth driven by new store openings, a revenue mix focused on outdoor and team sports, and merchandising initiatives. The firm projects 1.0% growth for athletic stores overall versus 1.3% last year.

2. On Holdings (ONON) 

The athletic brand receives an Outperform rating with a $43 price target. Telsey forecasts 22.4% growth for On Holdings, driven by global market share gains, direct-to-consumer expansion, and new product launches. The activewear segment overall is expected to increase 1.0% year-over-year.

3. Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Telsey assigns an Outperform rating with a $470 price target. The firm sees Ralph Lauren as a potential winner due to the strength of its core offering and successful brand elevation strategy, which has led to ongoing average unit retail growth. The business benefits from a greater mix of full-price customers who are less price sensitive and skew younger, more female, and toward high net worth individuals. Apparel manufacturers face a modest 2.0% growth rate versus 4.4% last year.

4. Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

The beauty retailer earns an Outperform rating with a $715 price target. Telsey estimates 2.5% growth for the beauty and personal care segment against a 5.3% increase in the prior year. Ulta's store portfolio, omni-channel capabilities, strong loyalty program, and brand partnerships provide competitive advantages. The company's diverse offering appeals to both mass and prestige customers in a resilient category with flexibility for promotional activity.

5. Kohl's Corporation (KSS)

Telsey rates the department store Market Perform with an $18 price target. The firm sees Kohl's merchandising improvements as potentially leading to positive results, with stronger assortment execution, compelling value, and disciplined inventory management supporting improved trends. The department store channel is estimated to contract 1.5% this holiday season against a 2.1% decline last year.