Taylor Wimpey sees 2026 profit at low end of forecasts as Autumn sales weaken

Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW)said on Wednesday it expected full-year profit to come in at the lower end of analyst forecasts and lowered its 2026 home completion outlook to around 10,500 homes, as higher mortgage rates and living costs weighed on demand during the key autumn selling season.

The company-compiled consensus range, dated Nov. 6, for full-year adjusted operating profit, including joint ventures and excluding one-off items, was £262 million to £299 million.

"The Autumn selling season has been more subdued, as higher mortgage rates and living costs continue to reduce customer affordability," chief executive Jennie Daly said in a statement.

Net private sales per outlet per week between June 29 and Nov. 8 were 0.60, down from 0.63 a year earlier, as rising mortgage rates further pressured affordability.

Excluding bulk deals, the rate was 0.54, compared with 0.61 a year earlier. The cancellation rate was unchanged at 17%.

For the year to date, net private sales per outlet per week stood at 0.69, compared with 0.72 a year earlier. Excluding bulk deals, the rate was 0.62, against 0.68, while the cancellation rate was 15%, down from 16%.

The order book, excluding joint ventures, stood at 6,839 homes worth around £1.98 billion on Nov. 8, compared with 7,253 homes worth approximately £2.12 billion a year earlier.

Prices continued to soften marginally, while incentives remained elevated. Taylor Wimpey still expects build costs to rise 3-4% in 2026 and said it was working to achieve further cost reductions.

The company operated from 225 outlets, up around 9% from 206 a year earlier, and opened 59 new outlets, compared with 51.

It averaged 220 outlets year to date, against 208 a year earlier, and expects to open more outlets in 2026 than in 2025.

Taylor Wimpey approved around 5,000 plots year to date, unchanged from a year earlier. Its short-term landbank fell to around 73,000 plots at the end of October from approximately 75,000 on June 28.

Conversions from its strategic pipeline rose to around 5,000 plots from around 2,000, while the pipeline stood at 131,000 potential plots, compared with around 132,000 on June 28.

The company still expects to end the year with around £250 million in net cash, subject to the timing of land purchases, after returning around £240 million to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share buybacks.

As of Nov. 6, it had bought around 39 million shares for approximately £31.5 million under a planned £41.9 million buyback, which it expects to complete by Dec. 31.

Taylor Wimpey welcomed the government’s Your First Home scheme for first-time buyers and said it was awaiting further details on funding allocation and implementation.