Qualcomm stock setup analysis after sharp post-earnings selloff: Is QCOM a buy?

Qualcomm’s selloff has a clear cause, and the chart hasn’t stabilized. The valuation case is real, but the evidence doesn’t yet show a bottom. "Opportunity" depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance. This is analysis, not a buy or sell call. 

What Broke

Qualcomm (QCOM) trades at $155.11, down 10.44% (as of Nov 5, 9:40 AM EST). That is down 16.34% over the past week. The stock is far below its 52-week high of $259.92 and about 27% above the $121.99 low.

The headline numbers were fine: EPS of $2.17 was in line, and revenue of $10.44B beat. The damage came from the details:

• Handset revenue fell 26% to $5.14B, missing the $5.25B estimate. (Nov 5, 2026)
• Gross margin slipped to 52.4% against a 53.2% consensus, and management guided chip-design operating margin to 20–22%, down from 24%. Rising wafer, packaging and memory costs are the cause. Pricing actions won’t fully help until the second half of fiscal 2027. (Nov 4, 2026)
• At least eight brokerages cut targets. Susquehanna cut to $165 on lower-margin data-center ASIC revenue. Morgan Stanley said it lacks conviction in a three-year AI ramp. (Nov 5, 2026)

The Bull Case

• Cheap on earnings. P/E is 13.6x trailing and about 15.5x forward, and FCF yield is 4.7%. The dividend yields 2.1% (as of Nov 5, 2026).
• Models point higher. Fair value is $196.25 (+26.5%) and the analyst target upside is 27% (as of Nov 5, 9:40 AM EST).
• Newer businesses are growing. Piper Sandler cites a data-center business expected to hit $650M in fiscal Q1. Qualcomm also expects a Samsung Galaxy S27 share above 70%. (Nov 5, 2026)
• Guidance had a bright spot. Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance of $10.8B at the midpoint is above the $10.55B consensus.

The Bear Case

• Estimates are still falling. Consensus EPS is down 2.31% over 90 days and 29.65% over one year. FY2027 EPS is expected at $10.01, down from $10.54 in FY2026. Earnings recover only in FY2028 ($12.80), so a "cheap" multiple rests on a rebound that hasn’t started.
• Margins are eroding. Annual gross margin has dropped from 56.2% in FY2024 to 53.1% in FY2026.
• Price targets are split. Bernstein is at $155 and Susquehanna at $165, which is roughly the current price. Baird at $320 sits at the other extreme.
• Weak guidance on iPhone. Qualcomm gave no update on its iPhone modem share.

Technical Picture

• Trend is bearish. Every daily moving average reads Sell (0 buy, 12 sell), and the weekly gauge is also Strong Sell. Price is below the daily SMA 50 ($178.06) and SMA 200 ($169.64).
• Oversold, but not reversing. Daily RSI is 36.6, Stochastic RSI is oversold at 21.8, and Williams %R is -86. MACD is negative, and ADX of 14.2 means the trend is weak even though the selling is heavy.
• Volatility is high. ATR is $8.77, so wide swings should be expected.
• Levels. Weekly S1 pivot is $155.81 (price is sitting on it), then S2 at $146.83, then the $121.99 52-week low. Resistance is the pre-earnings close near $173.19 and the daily SMA 200, with the classical R1 pivot at $176.72.

Qualcomm (QCOM) falling below $146.83, the weekly S2 pivot support would open the path toward the $122 lows. Qualcomm (QCOM) rising above $173.19, the pre-earnings close would mean the gap has been recovered.

Bottom Line

Valuation looks attractive, but the estimate revisions and the technical trend are both negative. Post-earnings drops often retest lows before basing. Bulls would want to see stabilization above $155.81 and margin evidence. Bears would point to the continued downward revisions.