Qualcomm earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts

Qualcomm (QCOM) cleared the low bar on the headline numbers. It still fell, because the quality of the quarter and the guidance disappointed. The stock trades at $155.09 (-10.45%) as of Nov 5, 1:24 PM EST. It is down 16.35% over one week.

Qualcomm (QCOM): $155.09 || FQ4 EPS $2.17 (in line) || Revenue $10.44B vs $10.14B est || 52W range $121.99–$259.92

Questions Answered

• Was the top line OK? Yes. Revenue beat and landed at the high end of guidance. Q1 revenue guidance of $10.8B at the midpoint is above the $10.55B consensus. (Nov 4, 2026)
• Is handset weakness real? Yes. Handset revenue fell 26% year over year to $5.14B, below the $5.25B estimate. Total revenue fell 7%. (Nov 5, 2026)
• Are cost pressures temporary? Not in the near term. Gross margin was 52.4% against 53.2% expected. QCT operating margin is guided to 20–22%, down from 24%. Price increases won’t fully help until the second half of fiscal 2027.
• Is the EPS guide a problem? Slightly. The Q1 EPS midpoint is $2.25 against about $2.32 consensus.
• Is diversification showing up? Partly. Data center is expected to reach $650M in fiscal Q1. Management also raised its expected Samsung Galaxy S27 share to above 70%. (Nov 5, 2026)

What Stayed Unanswered

• iPhone modem share: There was no update on the iPhone 18.
• Data-center margins: Susquehanna flags that lower-margin AI ASIC revenue is a growing gross margin headwind. It cut its target to $165 from $185. (Nov 5, 2026)
• Ramp size and timing: Goldman Sachs wants more evidence on the data-center ramp through fiscal 2027. It also wants proof that gross margin is stabilizing.

Estimates Tell the Story

Consensus FY2027 EPS is $10.01, down from $10.54 in FY2026. It only recovers to $12.80 in FY2028. EPS estimates are down 2.31% over 90 days and 29.65% over one year. Quarterly consensus rises from $2.26 (Dec 2026) to $2.88 (Sep 2027). That back-loaded path depends on pricing actions and data-center ramps both working.

Bull vs. Bear

• Bull: The stock trades at roughly 13.6x trailing and 15.5x forward earnings, with a 4.7% FCF yield. Fair value is $196.25 (+26.5%) as of Nov 5. Baird holds a $320 target.
• Bear: Annual gross margin has slipped from 56.2% in FY2024 to 53.1% in FY2026. Bernstein sits at $155. Piper Sandler (Neutral, $190) says fiscal 2029 design wins are already priced in.
• Mixed: Targets range from $155 to $320, so there is little consensus on what the stock is worth.

Next Catalysts

1. Fiscal Q1 report, tentatively Feb 3, 2027: Consensus is EPS $2.26 and revenue $10.51B. Watch the $650M data-center delivery and gross margin against the 20–22% QCT guide.
2. iPhone 18 modem share: Any disclosure would resolve the biggest open question.
3. Hyperscaler accelerator and CPU design wins: Piper Sandler says more traction is needed before it turns more constructive.
4. Pricing actions: These are expected to lift margins in the second half of fiscal 2027.
5. Samsung Galaxy S27 ramp: Share above 70% would support handset revenue.
6. Estimate revisions: Stabilizing EPS revisions would be an early sign of a bottom.