New survey reveals Wall Street’s consensus S&P 500 targets for end of 2026

Wall Street strategists are refusing to flinch. A Bloomberg survey of 19 equity forecasters found the average S&P 500 year-end target slipped just nine points to 7,967 from 7,976 in September, even as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly spiked to well above 5%, the Iran war rattled energy markets, and doubts about AI-spending sustainability triggered a sharp tech selloff late last week.

The consensus target sits 4.5% above the index's Friday, October 23 close of 7,623.68, and would represent a roughly 16% full-year gain for 2026 — placing the S&P 500 on course for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit annual returns. Of the 19 strategists polled, one raised their target and one cut it, per the Bloomberg survey.

"Being a strategist can be challenging at the best of times. But right now it feels as if we have to update our views at minimum on a weekly basis, if not even more," HSBC strategist Max Kettner said.

The resilience of those targets masks a more uncomfortable reality on the ground. The S&P 500 set its all-time closing high of 7,818.93 on October 6, and has not come close to reclaiming it since. It closed Friday roughly 2.5% below that record, dragged lower in part by a sharp mid-week selloff on Thursday, when revived concerns about AI funding sent Meta shares down more than 7% and sparked the index's largest single-session decline in months.

"Lower yields should also give valuations some reprieve. So any dips related to the above two factors – as well as further likely turmoil in France – will likely be a good buying opportunity in the next few weeks again – more for equities than credit though," Kettner added.

Earnings season, which many had hoped would serve as an anchor for sentiment, has offered only partial comfort. As of Friday, about 24% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 2026 results, with 83% beating EPS estimates — above the five-year average of 78%, according to FactSet. The catch: the average beat margin is just 2.1% above estimates, far below the five-year average of 7.5%.

Wells Fargo has characterized the start of this reporting season as one of the weakest on record in terms of surprise magnitude.

"While we expect solid results, companies' ability to provide reassurance on the outlook amid macro headwinds will likely be a bigger driver of performance this quarter," Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said.