Morgan Stanley flags four catalysts for SpaceX stock through year-end

A series of developments around artificial intelligence, Starship and computing infrastructure could prove consequential for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares through year-end, Morgan Stanley said, highlighting four catalysts.

The bank said Grok 4.6, released recently, has moved close to the frontier of artificial intelligence performance, scoring 61 on Artificial Analysis' Intelligence Index, compared with 56 for Grok 4.5 and 38 for Grok 4.3.

Elon Musk has indicated Grok 4.7 could arrive within three to four weeks, while Grok 5 is expected before year-end.

Morgan Stanley said actual usage would be more important than model performance, with Musk previously saying Grok token volumes tripled after the release of Grok 4.5. The bank expects more detail on usage through Cursor following its acquisition and at earnings.

The second major catalyst is Starship Flight 14, which Morgan Stanley expects in early September. The company still needs to complete a full-vehicle static fire and obtain Federal Aviation Administration approval for a planned ship catch.

The bank expects the test to be a major volatility event and potentially determine whether Starship becomes fully operational by year-end.

A third catalyst is the potential for higher artificial intelligence computing prices. Morgan Stanley said CoreWeave's roughly 25% price increase across its products suggests its SpaceX pricing assumptions could prove too conservative.

The fourth is a potential distributed inference cloud using robots and other connected devices. Morgan Stanley estimates 2.2 billion robots could be operating by 2040, with 500 watts of computing capacity each, equivalent to 1.1 terawatts of aggregate compute potentially connected through Starlink.

Morgan Stanley rates SpaceX Overweight and has a $300 price target.