Monster Beverage options flow points to institutional put selling
Monster Beverage options flow points to institutional put selling
With 6,975 puts versus just 124 calls, the options flow in Monster Beverage Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) is drawing attention — but the volatility data suggests the dominant trade may be premium selling, not bearish positioning.
Headline Numbers First
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST): Trading at $42.29 (-0.89%) as of Sep 25, 10:49 AM EDT | Market Cap: $83.0B | 52-Week Range: $32.21 – $50.17
The Put Avalanche
The options flow here is notable. With 6,975 puts vs. just 124 calls, the put/call ratio sits at ~56:1 — a ratio that points to institutional positioning rather than retail activity. Call volume is at its highest since Jan 31, 2007, but at 124 contracts, that is a small figure compared to the put volume.
The anchor trade: the Dec 18, 2026 $37.50 put accounted for 8,047 contracts against open interest of just 207 — meaning this is almost entirely fresh paper, opened today. At ~38x existing open interest, this is a deliberate, large-scale new position.
What’s the Trade, Really?
Two reads are plausible, and the volatility data complicates the straightforward bearish narrative:
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| 6,975 puts vs. 124 calls | Heavy downside bias |
| 8,047 contracts on $37.50 Dec put | Single dominant block |
| 3M IV fell 0.40ppt to 29.95% | Vol dropping — puts getting cheaper |
| 90/110 skew fell 0.83ppt to 2.63ppt | Less relative demand for downside protection |
The falling skew alongside falling IV is the key tell: if someone were panic-buying puts, implied vol would be rising, not falling. The more likely read is a large institutional player selling the $37.50 puts — effectively saying MNST stays above $37.50 through December, collecting premium. That would be a contrarian bullish bet, not a bearish one.
The $37.50 Gravity Test
The $37.50 strike sits ~11.4% below today’s price of $42.29. For it to hit pain:
- MNST would need to breach its 52-week low of $32.21 direction without stopping
- Context: the stock is already down -13.4% in 1 month and -15.7% off its 52-week high of $50.17
- The recent Aug 2026 earnings beat ($0.60 EPS vs. $0.58 estimate, $2.54B revenue vs. $2.42B consensus) provides a fundamental floor argument
Bull vs. Bear Snapshot
Bear case: The stock has shed over 13% in a month. CFO sold $614K in shares in May . BMO maintained only Market Perform even after raising its target, citing an already-priced-in premium valuation .
Bull case: Earnings momentum is intact. The falling skew and IV suggest the dominant option trade may be premium selling — smart money comfortable being short downside risk. The $37.50 level is a meaningful cushion (~11%) from here.