Loop Capital downgrades Apple, sees no recovery of cut iPhone shipments

 Loop Capital cut its rating for Apple to Hold from Buy and lowered the price target to $330 from $370 in a note Tuesday, citing new iPhone supply chain data.

Analyst Ananda Baruah told investors that Apple previously reduced September- and December-quarter iPhone shipments by 10%. 

Loop had believed Apple could make up many of those units through 2027, as the reductions were related to memory and processor supply rather than demand.

“This no longer appears to be the case,” Baruah wrote.

According to the firm’s supply chain checks, Apple has no plans to recover the 13 million iPhone shipments cut in the second half of 2026.

Loop lowered its “normalized” EPS estimate to $11 from $12. The new price target applies Apple’s median P/E of 30 times. The firm also flagged potential gross margin risk as memory costs keep rising.

For the December quarter, Loop now models 79 million iPhone units, compared with the Street’s 85 million. It cut its average selling price estimate to $1,123 from $1,239.

For calendar 2027, Loop raised its unit forecast to 260 million but cut its average selling price estimate to $1,096 from $1,235. It also lowered its iPhone revenue forecast to $285 billion from $315 billion and trimmed its EPS estimate to $9.76 from $10.11.

“We continue to like AAPL’s longer-term share gain and Services story… but believe the stock also requires a fundamental catalyst reset after its recent stock appreciation,” Baruah said.