Goldman Sachs names stock winners and losers after $6.3 bln Binance heist

 Goldman Sachs said the $6.3 billion hack at Binance is a net negative for the crypto stocks it covers, but that a flight to safety could help regulated firms such as Coinbase, BitGo and Robinhood.

Last week, Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, disclosed a cybersecurity incident affecting about $6.3 billion of assets, the largest crypto cyberattack to date by assets affected. Nearly $20 billion, or 14% of platform assets, has left Binance since the disclosure. 

About $3 billion, mostly stablecoins, was reportedly frozen by issuers including Circle and Tether and is potentially recoverable. Withdrawals resumed Nov. 1, and Binance has committed to covering all losses.

The hack calls into question cybersecurity across the crypto ecosystem and could hurt long-term industry growth, Goldman analysts led by James Yaro said in a note. They believe that concern contributed to a 4% drop in total crypto market cap since the day before the breach.

"Overall, we view this event as a negative for our digital assets coverage, specifically in terms of lower cryptoasset balances, and potentially lower crypto trading volumes and stablecoin balances," the analysts wrote. Most affected could be BitGo, Coinbase, and Gemini, whose custody, staking, and trading businesses make up most of their revenue. Coinbase also has substantial exposure to the USDC stablecoin.

Circle, eToro, Galaxy, Robinhood, and SQN could be affected to a lesser extent, the analysts noted, because they are less directly exposed or more diversified.

Goldman also highlighted possible second-order benefits. With customer assets leaving Binance, accounts could migrate to regulated custodians and brokerages. The analysts view Coinbase, BitGo, and Robinhood as "best-positioned," citing proven cybersecurity records and substantial regulation that raises the bar for security.

Beyond individual stocks, they said the incident could slow institutional adoption of crypto, especially at heavily regulated financial institutions with limited risk tolerance. It could also raise the bar for crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act, and increase scrutiny of cybersecurity controls for foreign exchanges seeking U.S. licenses.