Goldman downgrades Gjensidige as slowing price hikes limit earnings upside

 Goldman Sachs downgraded Norwegian insurer Gjensidige to “neutral” from “buy” on Tuesday and cut its 12-month price target by 9% to NOK 273, saying slowing price increases leave little room for the company to beat high expectations.

The new target is down from NOK 300 and sits 4% above Monday’s close of NOK 262.40. The cut reflects lower earnings estimates and a growth outlook now more in line with peers, Goldman said.

Gjensidige shares are down about 14% so far this year, which Goldman linked to concerns over autonomous vehicles, AI-based distribution of insurance and a Danish workers’ compensation ruling. 

Since Goldman added the stock to its Buy list on Nov. 28, 2025, the shares have fallen about 8%, while the FTSE World Europe index is down about 2% in local currency terms.

Goldman expects price increases to ease as claims inflation moderates. Profit should keep benefiting from earlier price rises, but it expects margins to grow more slowly from here.

It cut its 2027-2030 earnings-per-share forecasts by about 2.4% on average, citing lower growth and slower margin expansion.

Goldman forecasts a combined ratio of 78.3% for 2027 and 78.2% for 2028, against management’s target of below 81% for both years. Analysts’ consensus forecasts are also comfortably ahead of that target, Goldman said.

Goldman raised its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast by about 8.2% to NOK 15.58, after third-quarter results beat its estimates.

The brokerage said Gjensidige still held up well against steep price rises, with solid customer retention, stable market shares and wider margins. It prefers Nordic peers Sampo and Alm. Brand, where it sees stronger earnings growth and near-term catalysts.