Federal Reserve decision, retail sales, and oil inventories due Wednesday

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, a series of crucial decisions and economic data releases that could sway market dynamics are expected on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and policy statement will take center stage, accompanied by the central bank’s economic projections and a press conference. Earlier in the day, retail sales figures and core retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending trends, while the Energy Information Administration’s weekly crude oil inventories report will offer a snapshot of energy market conditions.

Major Economic Events to Watch

• 7:30 AM ET - Retail Sales: Expected to rise 0.8% after a -0.6% decline previously, measuring the change in total value of sales at the retail level and serving as the foremost indicator of consumer spending.

• 7:30 AM ET - Core Retail Sales: Forecast at 0.5% versus -0.3% prior, tracking the change in total value of retail sales excluding automobiles and considered a key indicator of consumer spending.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories: Previous reading showed a -0.391M barrel change, measuring the weekly change in commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms with implications for petroleum prices and inflation.

• 1:00 PM ET - Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is expected to set rates at 4.00%, up from 3.75% previously, with the decision representing the primary factor in currency valuation.

• 1:00 PM ET - FOMC Statement: The Federal Reserve’s primary communication tool on monetary policy, containing the outcome of the interest rate vote, economic outlook discussion, and clues on future policy direction.

• 1:00 PM ET - FOMC Economic Projections: Includes the committee’s projections for inflation and economic growth over the next two years, with a breakdown of individual members’ interest rate forecasts.

• 1:30 PM ET - FOMC Press Conference: Federal Reserve officials will address the media following the policy decision and statement release.

Other Important Economic Events to Watch

• 7:30 AM ET - Import Price Index: Expected at 0.4% versus -0.4% prior, measuring the change in prices of imported goods and services purchased domestically.

• 7:30 AM ET - Export Price Index: Forecast at 0.5% compared to -1.3% previously, tracking price changes of U.S. export goods to determine whether export changes reflect volume or price shifts.

• 7:30 AM ET - Retail Control: Expected at 0.4% versus -0.4% prior, providing additional detail on retail activity.

• 9:00 AM ET - Business Inventories: Forecast at 0.6% after 0.0% previously, measuring the change in worth of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.

• 9:00 AM ET - Retail Inventories Ex Auto: Expected at 0.7%, matching the previous 0.7% reading, tracking inventory levels excluding automobiles.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories: Previous reading at -0.684M barrels, measuring storage levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude.

• 10:30 AM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Expected at 4.4%, unchanged from prior, providing a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data.

• 1:00 PM ET - FFR Projection-Current: Previous at 3.8%, showing the Federal Reserve’s current federal funds rate projection.

• 1:00 PM ET - FFR Projection-1st Yr: Previous at 3.6%, indicating the Fed’s interest rate projection for the first year ahead.

• 1:00 PM ET - FFR Projection-2nd Yr: Previous at 3.4%, showing the Fed’s rate projection for the second year.

• 1:00 PM ET - FFR Projection-3rd Yr: Previous at 3.1%, indicating the Fed’s interest rate projection for the third year.

• 1:00 PM ET - FFR Projection-Longer: Previous at 3.1%, showing the Fed’s longer-term interest rate projection.

• 3:00 PM ET - TIC Net Long-Term Transactions: Expected at 146.3B versus 172.7B prior, measuring the difference between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors.

Other Economic Events to Watch

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications: Previous at -2.7%, measuring the weekly change in new mortgage applications backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

• 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Market Index: Previous at 240.6, covering all mortgage applications during the week including conventional, government, fixed-rate, and adjustable-rate mortgages.

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index: Previous at 157.5, including all mortgage applications for single-family home purchases and serving as a reliable indicator of impending home sales.

• 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Refinance Index: Previous at 687.3, covering all mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage and gauging refinancing activity.

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Previous at 6.85%, showing fixed 30-year mortgage lending rates for 80% loan-to-value mortgages.

• 7:30 AM ET - Import Price Index (Year-over-Year): Previous at 5.9%, measuring the annual change in prices of imported goods and services.

• 7:30 AM ET - Export Price Index (Year-over-Year): Previous at 8.2%, tracking the annual price changes of U.S. export goods.

• 7:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (Year-over-Year): Previous at 5.01%, showing the annual change in total value of retail sales.

• 7:30 AM ET - Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos: Previous at -0.2%, representing total consumer purchases from retail stores excluding volatile gas and auto components.

• 9:00 AM ET - NAHB Housing Market Index: Expected at 34 versus 35 prior, rating the relative level of current and future single-family home sales based on a survey of approximately 900 home builders.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Previous at 2.087M barrels, showing inventory levels of distillate fuels.

• 9:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories: Previous at 1.269M barrels, measuring the change in commercial gasoline held in inventory.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates: Previous at -0.2%, indicating the percentage of refinery capacity being utilized.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs: Previous at 0.090M barrels, measuring crude oil processed by refineries.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports: Previous at 1.120M barrels, tracking the volume of crude oil imported into the United States.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production: Previous at -0.537M barrels, measuring the change in gasoline production levels.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production: Previous at 0.222M barrels, tracking production of distillate fuels.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock: Previous at 0.010M barrels, measuring heating oil inventory levels.

• 3:00 PM ET - Overall Net Capital Flow: Previous at 133.50B, showing the sum of U.S. securities transactions and foreign stock and bond purchases.

• 3:00 PM ET - Foreign Buying, T-bonds: Previous at 6.80B, measuring net purchases of U.S. treasury bonds and notes by major foreign sectors.

• 3:00 PM ET - TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps: Previous at 172.70B, representing gross purchases by foreigners from U.S. residents minus gross sales by foreigners to U.S. residents.

For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here.