Citi forecasts 65,000 jobs added in October payrolls report

Citi expects the U.S. economy added 65,000 jobs in October, according to a note released Monday. The bank’s forecast aligns with low initial and continuing jobless claims and stronger survey data from October.

The bank said it would not be surprised if job growth weakens in coming months, partly due to a smaller overall labor force. This could keep the unemployment rate low, which Citi expects to hold steady at 4.2% in October.

Citi said the more important details in upcoming employment reports could be further slowing in average hourly earnings. This would support Chair Warsh’s claim that the economy is not overheated and could limit any hawkish market reaction if employment numbers come in higher than expected.