BofA tracks shipping data showing Red Sea transit recovery

Bank of America released its latest shipping and supply chain data tracking report, showing container shipping through the Red Sea has recovered to 65% of normal levels in the past two weeks.

The recovery marks an increase from 50% in September as container liners continue returning to the Red Sea route. Additional service returns are currently being planned, according to the report.

Global port congestion has decreased to 10% of the fleet from peaks of 11-12%, driven by reduced congestion in North Asia. Port congestion could increase in the coming weeks due to Typhoon Champi disruptions and vessel bunching from Red Sea route returns.

Container rates on long haul trades appear to have peaked. Europe and transpacific quotes are holding near Shanghai Containerized Freight Index levels due to solid off-peak demand and elevated congestion.

Tanker spot rates have declined from recent peaks but remain elevated. Real Very Large Crude Carrier rates show Oman to China routes at $650,000 per day and US to China routes at $450,000 per day. Forward curves indicate 2027 average VLCC rates could hold around $200,000 per day.

Dry bulk rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 are tracking 31% higher year-over-year. Panama Canal bulker transits are tracking 30% lower year-over-year despite improving water levels in recent weeks. Forward curves suggest average rates remaining 25% higher year-over-year through the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027.

Car carrier demand grew 9.4% year-over-year in September 2026. Demand for the first nine months of 2026 is tracking 10.4% higher year-over-year. Hoegh rates excluding fuel have rebounded to 4% higher year-over-year.