Barlow’s Research Roundup: Four changes to RBC’s Global Energy Best Ideas top picks list
Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Energy best ideas
RBC Capital Markets head of global energy research Greg Pardy made four changes to his group’s global energy best ideas list of top picks,
“In August, the RBC Global Energy Best Ideas List was up 1.9 per cent sequentially compared to the iShares S&P Global Energy Sector ETF (IXC), which was up 4.4 per cent and a hybrid benchmark (75-per-cent IXC, 25-per-cent JXI – iShares Global Utilities ETF) that was up 2.5 per cent on a sequential basis.
“This month, we are adding Tamboran Resources (TBN) to the RBC Global Energy Best Ideas List while removing ConocoPhillips (COP), Permian Resources (PR), and Chord Energy (CHRD).”
The stocks are now: Suncor Energy, BP PLC, California Resources, Tamboran Resources, PrairieSky Royalty, Canadian Natural Resources, Ovintiv Inc., Woodside Energy, Enerflex Ltd., AltaGas Ltd., Pembina Pipeline Corp., Cheniere Energy, Inc., Williams Companies, Inc., EDP Renováveis S.A. and Northland Power.
Contenders and defenders
BofA Securities quant strategist Nigel Tupper uses a contenders and defenders terminology to select the best growth and value stocks,
“A screen of inexpensive stocks with strong earnings and price momentum rebounded in August following a pullback in the previous month. Last month, the Global Contenders (up 3.4 per cent) outperformed the MSCI AC World Index (up 2.6 per cent) by 0.8 per cent and the Global Defenders (up 3.0 per cent) by 0.4 per cent. The 12-month performance spread between the Global Contenders and Defenders is 31.3 per cent.
“The new Global Contenders this month are Anheuser-Busch, Bayer, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Live Nation, and Steel Dynamics. The longest standing Contender is Citigroup (23 months).
“The other Global Contenders are Hana Financial, Kia, United Microelectronics, Wiwynn, OTP Bank, AerCap, BNP Paribas, Alphabet-A, Broadcom, Bunge, Cummins, CVS Health Corp, GM, Halliburton, Jabil, KLA, Magna Int’l, Micron Tech, Royalty Pharma-A, Seagate Tech, State Street, Twilio-A, Vertiv, and Zoom.”
Contenders consist of 30 lowest price-to-earnings stocks with above average earnings and price momentum.
The complete list of contenders is Hana Financial, Kia, United Microelectronics, Wiwyn. OTP Bank, AerCap, Anheuser-Busch, Bayer, BNP Paribas, Mitsuian OSK Lines, Alphabet, Broadcom, Bunge, Citigroup, Cummmins, CVS Health Corp, GM, Haliburton, Jabil, KLA, Live Nation, Magna International, Micron Tech, Royalty Pharma, Seagate Tech, State Street, Steel Dynamics, Twilio, Verity and Zoom.
Bonds hard to love
Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-MArie reports that bonds are “hard to love” despite higher yields,
“As expected, the FTSE-Canada Universe Bond index has delivered a mediocre performance so far this year, generating a total return of only up 0.4 per cent after eight months. Its U.S. counterpart, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index has not performed any better (the index is slightly down 0.3 per cent on a total return basis).
“While higher yields make bonds somewhat more attractive, we think forces at play will continue to drive bond yields higher over the medium term, which in turn will mitigate total return performances. Hard-to-suppress supply-side–driven inflation, fiscal imbalances (with many countries rushing to spend more on infrastructures/defence), and rapidly rising government debt are leading to normalizing term-premium and higher nominal bond yields.
“We maintain our UW recommendation on Bonds, with a preference for Corporate bonds (MW) over Government Bonds (UW). For equities, the focus is squarely on the 10-year yield rather than the 30-year. A stronger-for-longer earnings cycle could raise the market’s tolerance for higher rates, potentially allowing U.S. 10-year yields to push above 5 per cent without materially derailing equity performance. Time will tell”
Bluesky post of the day
Gonna go out on a limb and say that agricultural commodities & refiners going up and to the right while industrials, semis, utilities, and equal weight roll over is less than ideal
— Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) September 2, 2026 at 6:27 AM
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