ADP jobs data, GDP, core PCE, and oil inventories due Wednesday

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, a series of crucial economic data releases that could sway market dynamics are expected on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The day’s calendar features the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which provides an early glimpse into labor market conditions ahead of the official government payroll report. Additionally, the Gross Domestic Product figures will offer insight into the broader health of the U.S. economy, while the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will be released. Rounding out the major events, the Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, which can influence energy prices and broader inflation expectations.

Major Economic Events to Watch

• 7:15 AM ET - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Forecast:73K, Previous: 38K): Measures monthly change in non-farm private employment based on payroll data from approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients, serving as a predictor of the government’s official jobs report.

• 7:30 AM ET - GDP (Forecast:1.5%, Previous: 2.1%): Measures the annualized change in inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, serving as the broadest indicator of economic health.

• 7:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (Forecast:0.3%, Previous: 0.2%): Measures changes in consumer prices excluding food and energy, representing a key inflation metric for the Federal Reserve.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Previous:2.969M): Measures weekly change in commercial crude oil barrels held by U.S. firms, influencing petroleum product prices and inflation expectations.

Other Important Economic Events to Watch

• 7:30 AM ET - Goods Trade Balance (Forecast:-116.30B, Previous: -118.80B): Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

• 7:30 AM ET - GDP Price Index (Forecast:6.4%, Previous: 3.6%): Measures the annualized change in prices of all goods and services included in gross domestic product, serving as the broadest inflationary indicator.

• 7:30 AM ET - Core PCE Prices (Forecast:3.60%, Previous: 4.40%): Annual measure of changes in consumer prices excluding food and energy.

• 7:30 AM ET - Personal Spending (Forecast:0.8%, Previous: 0.2%): Measures change in inflation-adjusted value of all consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

• 7:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index (Forecast:0.4%, Previous: 0.2%): Monthly indicator of average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption.

• 7:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index (Forecast:3.7%, Previous: 3.7%): Annual indicator of average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption.

• 7:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (Forecast:3.4%, Previous: 3.3%): Annual measure of PCE price index excluding volatile food and energy prices.

• 7:30 AM ET - Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Previous:0.8%): Measures change in total value of goods held in inventory by retailers, excluding automobiles.

• 8:45 AM ET - Chicago PMI (Forecast:51.2, Previous: 47.1): Determines economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.

• 9:00 AM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Forecast:5.0%, Previous: 5.0%): Running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current quarter.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories (Previous:2.266M): Measures change in crude oil barrels held in storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate benchmark.

• 4:10 PM ET - Fed Goolsbee Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee addresses the public.

• 5:00 PM ET - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari addresses the public, potentially offering clues on future monetary policy.

Other Economic Events to Watch

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications (Previous:-1.5%): Measures weekly change in number of new mortgage applications backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

• 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Market Index (Previous:227.3): Covers all mortgage applications during the week, including conventional, government, fixed-rate, and adjustable-rate mortgages.

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index (Previous:154.9): Includes all mortgage applications for purchase of a single-family home, serving as a reliable indicator of impending home sales.

• 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Refinance Index (Previous:611.0): Covers all mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage, serving as the best gauge of refinancing activity.

• 6:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Previous:7.12%): Fixed 30-year mortgage lending rates for 80% loan-to-value mortgages.

• 7:30 AM ET - Personal Income (Forecast:0.5%, Previous: 0.4%): Measures change in total value of income received from all sources by consumers.

• 7:30 AM ET - Real Personal Consumption (Previous:0.0%): Personal consumption adjusted for inflation, divided into durable goods, non-durable goods, and services.

• 7:30 AM ET - PCE Prices (Forecast:5.3%, Previous: 4.6%): Annual measure of changes in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.

• 7:30 AM ET - Wholesale Inventories (Forecast:0.5%, Previous: 1.3%): Measures change in total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.

• 7:30 AM ET - Corporate Profits (Forecast:8.2%, Previous: 0.5%): Net current-production income of organizations treated as corporations in national income accounts.

• 7:30 AM ET - GDP Sales (Forecast:2.2%, Previous: 1.9%): Measures sales component of gross domestic product.

• 7:30 AM ET - Real Consumer Spending (Forecast:3.4%, Previous: 0.5%): Inflation-adjusted amount of money spent by households in the U.S. economy.

• 9:00 AM ET - Dallas Fed PCE (Previous:2.20%): Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rate that excludes extreme price movements.

• 9:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories (Previous:-1.686M): Measures weekly change in barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Previous:-0.428M): Measures inventory levels of distillates stocks.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock (Previous:0.346M): Measures change in heating oil inventory levels.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Previous:-2.8%): Measures percentage of refinery capacity being utilized.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production (Previous:-0.068M): Measures weekly production of distillate fuels.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports (Previous:0.369M): Measures weekly change in crude oil imports.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Previous:-0.519M): Measures crude oil processed by refineries.

• 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production (Previous:-0.054M): Measures weekly production of gasoline.

• 12:30 PM ET - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin addresses the public, potentially offering clues on future monetary policy.

• 2:25 PM ET - Fed Governor Cook Speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook addresses the public.

For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here.