House battleground map tightens as GOP scrambles to shore up red seats

Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield.

The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.

Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.

“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”