S&P to Turn Kalshi Probabilities into Indices under Benchmark Deal

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) and Kalshi have signed a two-way agreement that could turn prediction market prices into a new category of traditional financial indices.

Prices generated by its traders could move beyond the platform and become the raw material for S&P DJI products covering economic, political and sporting events, while Kalshi will be able to use official S&P DJI values to settle future event contracts linked to established benchmarks.

A Two-Way Data and Licensing Agreement

The partnership has two distinct parts. First, S&P DJI could use prices from Kalshi markets to create new indices. Kalshi would supply the market data, and S&P DJI would apply its index methodology to turn that data into a measure of market expectations.

The second part runs in the other direction. Kalshi could offer event contracts linked to existing S&P DJI indices. Customers would trade the contracts on Kalshi, while official S&P DJI index values would determine how they settle. S&P DJI would provide the reference value, but would not sponsor, sell or endorse the contracts.

In other words, either S&P DJI creates an index based on Kalshi data, or the other way round - Kalshi makes a contract based on S&P DJI data.

The companies have not said which indices or contracts they will develop first, or when either product might launch.

"Robust indices help to define markets: what they are, how to measure them and rules for monitoring their evolution. With benchmarks spanning every major asset class, S&P DJI's breadth, independence, and trust make us the index provider of choice as prediction markets mature," said Cathy Clay, CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Prediction Markets Become a Financial Data Product

The two sides of the S&P DJI–Kalshi agreement have precedents, though usually in separate products. Market-data providers have begun packaging prediction-market prices for professional clients, while exchanges already offer binary contracts linked to stock indices.

Intercontinental Exchange partnered with Polymarket to turn prediction-market prices into data for professional investors. Its Polymarket Signals and Sentiment service distributes normalised probability feeds.

S&P DJI could take a different approach by using Kalshi prices to calculate indices. The flow of data in the other direction also has a precedent.

In June, Cboe launched yes-or-no options linked to its Mini-S&P 500 Index, letting customers trade contracts whose outcomes depend on an established index value.

Kalshi plans a similar use for S&P DJI benchmarks, although its first contracts and their terms have yet to be announced.

The companies described each other as “preferred” providers, rather than announcing an exclusive arrangement. They have not identified the first indices or Kalshi contracts, disclosed their methodologies or given launch dates.

Publication of those details will determine how far the collaboration moves beyond a framework agreement.