COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle
By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. […]
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (8,120 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,856 contracts), Sugar (4,038 contracts), Coffee (3,219 contracts) and Cocoa (931 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-26,300 contracts) with Soybeans (-24,709 contracts), Wheat (-9,102 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,334 contracts), Lean Hogs (-7,936 contracts) and with Cotton (-6,415 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
Sugar leads Soft Commodities Price Performances
In this week’s major Soft Commodities markets, Sugar was the overwhelming leader with a jump by over 13%, with a 13.77% gain on the week. Following was Coffee with a 4.36% rise over these past five days, while Lean Hogs rounded out the gainers with a 1.59% increase.
On the downside, Cocoa fell slightly by -0.18%, followed by Soybean Oil which dipped by -0.25%. Live Cattle also fell by a similar amount with a -0.30% decline while Wheat dropped by over 2% with a -2.81% decrease. Soybeans fell by more than 3% with a -3.02% shortfall.
Cotton was lower by -5.25%, Soybean Meal dipped by -5.27% and Corn was the biggest decliner on the week with a -5.37% drop.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Corn (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (95 percent), Sugar (87 percent) and Cotton (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Cocoa (9 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (95.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (99.1 percent)
Sugar (86.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.1 percent)
Coffee (31.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybeans (94.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (75.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (97.3 percent)
Live Cattle (12.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (5.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.4 percent)
Cotton (82.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (71.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (77.5 percent)
Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (33 percent) and Corn (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (19 percent), Soybeans (14 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Coffee (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-8 percent), Cocoa (-8 percent) and Cotton (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (36.0 percent)
Sugar (18.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.2 percent)
Coffee (-18.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybeans (13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-1.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (32.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-7.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.2 percent)
Cotton (-5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cocoa (-8.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.5 percent)
Wheat (1.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.3 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 509,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -26,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 535,801 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.1 | 38.6 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.6 | 62.8 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | 509,501 | -448,508 | -60,993 |
| – Gross Longs: | 632,852 | 717,634 | 133,051 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 123,351 | 1,166,142 | 194,044 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 95.9 | 3.7 | 53.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.6 | -26.7 | -3.8 |
SUGAR Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 168,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,404 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.8 | 41.7 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.5 | 62.0 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | 168,442 | -222,921 | 54,479 |
| – Gross Longs: | 360,926 | 458,294 | 100,598 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 192,484 | 681,215 | 46,119 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 86.9 | 11.1 | 94.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.6 | -18.2 | 11.1 |
COFFEE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position uptick of 3,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,273 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.5 | 45.7 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 55.1 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 13,492 | -14,532 | 1,040 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,105 | 70,808 | 7,381 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,613 | 85,340 | 6,341 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.7 | 69.4 | 33.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.3 | 19.2 | -24.4 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 256,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lowering of -24,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 281,581 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.7 | 44.7 | 4.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.1 | 66.0 | 6.8 |
| – Net Position: | 256,872 | -232,975 | -23,897 |
| – Gross Longs: | 345,383 | 486,862 | 49,913 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 88,511 | 719,837 | 73,810 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 94.8 | 5.3 | 38.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.8 | -13.6 | -8.3 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,866 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,200 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.9 | 45.1 | 5.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.4 | 66.0 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 101,866 | -114,914 | 13,048 |
| – Gross Longs: | 142,423 | 247,899 | 32,629 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,557 | 362,813 | 19,581 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.7 | 26.4 | 83.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.0 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 216,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position increase of 8,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 208,361 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.5 | 33.2 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 5.1 | 70.8 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 216,481 | -236,376 | 19,895 |
| – Gross Longs: | 248,430 | 208,727 | 45,504 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,949 | 445,103 | 25,609 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 7.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 53.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 32.8 | -31.7 | -24.7 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position increase of 6,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,312 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.7 | 38.3 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.7 | 48.6 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | 35,168 | -29,993 | -5,175 |
| – Gross Longs: | 96,069 | 112,589 | 25,648 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 60,901 | 142,582 | 30,823 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 12.3 | 85.0 | 80.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 0.5 | 14.1 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -76,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -7,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,295 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.9 | 39.2 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 53.2 | 14.4 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -76,231 | 71,972 | 4,259 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,098 | 113,621 | 23,544 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 154,329 | 41,649 | 19,285 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.6 | 5.0 | 30.4 |
COTTON Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -6,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,028 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: WeakUptrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.1 | 42.3 | 4.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.2 | 69.2 | 2.3 |
| – Net Position: | 96,613 | -104,441 | 7,828 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,639 | 164,936 | 16,746 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,026 | 269,377 | 8,918 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.6 | 17.8 | 61.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.6 | 7.0 | -20.9 |
COCOA Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position rise of 931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,050 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.6 | 53.8 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.2 | 46.8 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | -14,119 | 12,806 | 1,313 |
| – Gross Longs: | 30,460 | 98,883 | 10,433 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 44,579 | 86,077 | 9,120 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.5 | 88.9 | 39.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.3 | 9.9 | -18.6 |
WHEAT Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -16,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position fall of -9,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,360 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.8 | 36.5 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.2 | 33.7 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | -16,462 | 13,451 | 3,011 |
| – Gross Longs: | 115,160 | 176,178 | 34,862 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 131,622 | 162,727 | 31,851 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.2 | 27.3 | 70.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | -2.2 | 3.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.